MRNA NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Moderna Inc · Healthcare · Biotechnology

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Latest close 54.07 USD
-12.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 5.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 50.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -12.5%, after a -19.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 51/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 1d.

Setup score 54 out of 100
Latest Close 54.07 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return -12.5% latest completed week
4W Return -19.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 19.2% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 55.8% 29 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.6x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 29-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -12.5% Latest completed week; four-week move -19.6%. Indicator stack 76/100 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Recent Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 51/100 conviction; expected move 9.9%. News sentiment 48/100 51 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 1d Next report is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 5.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 50.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -12.5%, after a -19.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.6x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6212-week average 0.61

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure5/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.62Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -19.6% over four weeks, 19.2% over 12 weeks, and 58.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 29 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-12.5%
4W-19.6%
12W19.2%
26W11.0%
52W58.3%
Active trend streak29 weeks
Active weeks in one year29
Trend breadth55.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.62Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change895.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership23.40Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-57.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 82% Model confidence 78%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength18/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Value22/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Quality3/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 98; rank 1 is best.
Momentum90/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
Growth13/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
9.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-6.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-13.9%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-140.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-58.8%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-34.4%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-29.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.2%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

MRNA shows volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.63, expected move of 9.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction51/100
Expected move9.9%
Put/call volume0.63
Pressure20
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend agreement94
Open options detail
Insider activity12 / 8

12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

8 positive · 32 neutral · 11 negative
Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings1dNext report is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-36.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility13.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+28.2%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-14.4%Week of 10 Jul.
Latest week-12.5%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses9
Recent vol13.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol10.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew9.0% / -6.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape62/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 62/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis72/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 5/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.62; No reversal markers Factors30/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 74 Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options62/100

MRNA shows volatility options pressure with a 51/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.63, expected move of 9.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 9.9% Sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

(MRNA) as a Liquidity Pulse for Institutional Tactics Insiders12 / 8

12 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings1d

Next report is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.

 Research flow4 items

1 recent research articles and 3 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 202654.07 USD-12.5%51.08 USD63.13 USD0.6223.4022.2MOn
17 Jul 202661.82 USD-9.4%50.32 USD63.55 USD0.9439.6127.9MOn
10 Jul 202668.27 USD-14.4%49.38 USD63.96 USD1.0849.2546.2MOn
3 Jul 202679.76 USD18.6%48.09 USD64.30 USD0.6379.3543.3MOn
26 Jun 202667.27 USD5.2%46.35 USD64.55 USD0.0655.2948.1MOn
19 Jun 202663.96 USD28.2%44.98 USD64.90 USD-0.4543.0555.9MOn
12 Jun 202649.91 USD5.2%43.64 USD65.25 USD-0.8915.9724.6MOn
5 Jun 202647.44 USD0.5%42.80 USD65.76 USD-0.7213.4531.6MOn
29 May 202647.19 USD0.7%42.04 USD66.24 USD-0.478.3118.6MOn
22 May 202646.88 USD-4.4%41.37 USD66.78 USD-0.4211.1724.2MOn
15 May 202649.04 USD-9.8%40.70 USD67.28 USD-0.3018.2359.1MOn
8 May 202654.35 USD19.8%39.93 USD67.78 USD-0.1931.5346.2MOn
1 May 202645.37 USD-10.6%39.01 USD68.26 USD-0.1416.8631.5MOn
24 Apr 202650.73 USD-5.6%38.45 USD68.85 USD0.1933.1623.9MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.