MBI NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

MBIA Inc · Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

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Latest close 5.12 USD
-9.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -16.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 0.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.5%, after a -24.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 60/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 30 out of 100
Latest Close 5.12 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -9.5% latest completed week
4W Return -24.7% short-term follow-through
12W Return -10.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 40.4% 21 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.56% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -9.5% Latest completed week; four-week move -24.7%. Indicator stack 22/52 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.56% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 60/100 conviction; expected move 20.8%. News sentiment 52/100 32 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -16.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 0.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.5%, after a -24.7% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.2012-week average 0.11

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.20Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -24.7% over four weeks, -10.3% over 12 weeks, and -8.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-9.5%
4W-24.7%
12W-10.3%
26W-20.0%
52W-8.6%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year21
Trend breadth40.4%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.34Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-56.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-29.23Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-408.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 85% Model confidence 81%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength23/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 78; rank 1 is best.
Value38/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Quality37/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 64; rank 1 is best.
Momentum38/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Growth38/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
3.2x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
106.0x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
1.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
37.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-177.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
53.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-11.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
109.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.0%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
97.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

MBI shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 20.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction60/100
Expected move20.8%
Put/call volume0.00
Pressure100
Speculation40
Volatility96
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity5 / 0

5 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 32 relevant articles.

5 positive · 24 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move20.8%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-38.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.1%Week of 26 Jun.
Worst week-13.5%Week of 24 Jul.
Latest week-9.5%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses7
Recent vol5.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.6% / -4.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape33/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 33/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis29/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.20; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.56%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.56% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors32/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 37; Small Cap Core rank 62 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options38/100

MBI shows volatility options pressure with a 60/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 20.8%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 20.8% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 32 relevant articles.

MBIA Inc. Investor Conference Call to Discuss Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Scheduled for Friday, August 7 at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time Insiders5 / 0

5 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20265.12 USD-9.5%6.16 USD5.58 USD0.34-29.232.6MOff
24 Jul 20265.66 USD-13.5%6.22 USD5.57 USD0.72-21.262.5MOff
17 Jul 20266.54 USD2.5%6.27 USD5.56 USD1.03-9.591.3MOff
10 Jul 20266.38 USD-6.2%6.29 USD5.54 USD0.90-12.981.3MOff
3 Jul 20266.80 USD4.5%6.33 USD5.52 USD0.79-5.751.4MOff
26 Jun 20266.51 USD7.1%6.35 USD5.51 USD0.64-7.442.3MOff
19 Jun 20266.08 USD-1.5%6.39 USD5.49 USD0.27-15.301.1MOff
12 Jun 20266.17 USD0.7%6.44 USD5.47 USD0.25-13.111.3MOff
5 Jun 20266.13 USD4.4%6.49 USD5.46 USD0.22-12.992.1MOff
29 May 20265.87 USD-4.1%6.54 USD5.45 USD0.06-18.64977.5KOff
22 May 20266.12 USD4.4%6.57 USD5.43 USD-0.12-13.901.6MOff
15 May 20265.86 USD2.6%6.59 USD5.42 USD-0.40-16.742.8MOff
8 May 20265.71 USD0.7%6.62 USD5.40 USD-0.65-18.692.5MOff
1 May 20265.67 USD-6.7%6.66 USD5.39 USD-0.96-17.361.2MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.