- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
EBS
NYSE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Emergent Biosolutions Inc · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Latest close
7.22 USD
-0.6%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -19.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 19.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.6%, after a -12.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 46/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.
Setup score
17
out of 100
Latest Close
7.22 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-0.6%
latest completed week
4W Return
-12.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-24.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
50.0%
26 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 43.55% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-0.6%
Latest completed week; four-week move -12.8%.
Indicator stack
28/25
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 43.55%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
46/100 conviction; expected move 18.9%.
News sentiment
50/100
56 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
4d
Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -19.3% below the Trend Line and sits at 19.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.6%, after a -12.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.1812-week average 0.10
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.18Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -12.8% over four weeks, -24.0% over 12 weeks, and 28.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year26
Trend breadth50.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.40Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-226.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-29.50Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-53.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 87%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength87/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Value91/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 10; rank 1 is best.
Quality73/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Momentum32/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 69; rank 1 is best.
Growth3/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 98; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework59/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.6x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.1x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 20.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 44.4% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 8.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 23.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 4.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -29.9% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 27.7% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 7/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 9.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 9.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 2.7x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
EBS shows volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.81, expected move of 18.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction46/100
Expected move18.9%
Put/call volume1.81
Insider activity8 / 12
8 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.
6 positive · 43 neutral · 7 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move18.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-48.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+12.2%Week of 8 May.
Worst week-25.4%Week of 27 Feb.
Latest week-0.6%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses6
Recent vol7.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol11.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split28/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew7.7% / -6.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Healthcare
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-1.5%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD78.0%positive activity pressure
RS49.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
4-week rank61 / 74
Group average-1.5%
Trend breadth39.2%
Trend39.2%active weekly trend signals
MD54.1%positive activity pressure
RS32.4%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape20/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 20/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis22/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.18; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 43.55%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 43.55% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors71/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 6; Small Cap Core rank 4 SVQF59/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 418.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options55/100EBS shows volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.81, expected move of 18.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 18.9% Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.
Emergent BioSolutions Inc (EBS) Institutional Confidence Insiders8 / 128 acquisitions and 12 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 7.22 USD | -0.6% | 8.95 USD | 7.03 USD | -0.40 | -29.50 | 2.7M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 7.26 USD | -4.8% | 9.12 USD | 7.03 USD | -0.21 | -28.28 | 2.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 7.63 USD | -5.2% | 9.30 USD | 7.03 USD | 0.16 | -25.23 | 4.2M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 8.05 USD | -2.8% | 9.46 USD | 7.03 USD | 0.32 | -22.43 | 4.0M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 8.28 USD | -2.9% | 9.57 USD | 7.02 USD | 0.32 | -19.27 | 2.6M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 8.53 USD | 6.6% | 9.69 USD | 7.01 USD | 0.38 | -15.05 | 6.4M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 8.00 USD | -3.8% | 9.78 USD | 7.01 USD | 0.26 | -22.09 | 5.7M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 8.32 USD | 3.1% | 9.84 USD | 7.01 USD | 0.09 | -18.20 | 3.4M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 8.07 USD | -11.5% | 9.90 USD | 7.01 USD | -0.11 | -20.14 | 4.3M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 9.12 USD | 7.9% | 9.97 USD | 7.02 USD | -0.18 | -12.04 | 3.9M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 8.45 USD | 6.4% | 10.09 USD | 7.01 USD | -0.46 | -17.17 | 3.7M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 7.94 USD | -16.4% | 10.13 USD | 7.01 USD | -0.70 | -21.47 | 2.9M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 9.50 USD | 12.2% | 10.17 USD | 7.01 USD | -0.83 | -5.92 | 4.5M | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 8.47 USD | 5.5% | 10.15 USD | 7.01 USD | -1.14 | -13.81 | 3.9M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.