- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
GERN
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Geron Corporation · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Latest close
1.29 USD
-9.2%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -10.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 25.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.2%, after a -5.1% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 53/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.
Setup score
26
out of 100
Latest Close
1.29 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-9.2%
latest completed week
4W Return
-5.1%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-7.2%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
30.8%
16 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.0x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-9.2%
Latest completed week; four-week move -5.1%.
Indicator stack
17/51
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 44.81%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
53/100 conviction; expected move 27.1%.
News sentiment
56/100
56 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
3d
Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -10.7% below the Trend Line and sits at 25.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -9.2%, after a -5.1% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0812-week average 0.26
12-week confirmation
Trend active1/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.08Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -5.1% over four weeks, -7.2% over 12 weeks, and 10.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year16
Trend breadth30.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.26Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change67.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-14.76Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-6.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 82%
Model confidence 78%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength6/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Value22/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Quality5/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 96; rank 1 is best.
Momentum33/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
Growth87/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 4.6x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -11.5% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 86.6% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -19.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -64.0% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -6.9% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 68.6% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 2/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -4.9x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
GERN shows volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 27.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction53/100
Expected move27.1%
Put/call volume0.01
Insider activity6 / 0
6 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment56/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.
19 positive · 34 neutral · 3 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move27.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-35.8%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.6%Week of 3 Apr.
Worst week-12.0%Week of 8 May.
Latest week-9.2%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains8
Modest gains4
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses10
Recent vol6.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/24Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew6.2% / -5.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Healthcare
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-1.5%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD78.0%positive activity pressure
RS49.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Biotechnology
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-4.9%
Trend breadth66.0%
Trend66.0%active weekly trend signals
MD67.0%positive activity pressure
RS63.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape25/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 25/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis12/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 1/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.08; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 44.81%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 44.81% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors14/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 44; Small Cap Core rank 79 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options36/100GERN shows volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.01, expected move of 27.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 27.1% Sentiment56/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 56 relevant articles.
GERN|Geron Corp|Price:1.335|Chg%:-0.065 Insiders6 / 06 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 1.29 USD | -9.2% | 1.44 USD | 2.35 USD | -0.26 | -14.76 | 58.7M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1.42 USD | -1.4% | 1.45 USD | 2.36 USD | -0.35 | -5.85 | 23.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1.44 USD | -4.0% | 1.44 USD | 2.37 USD | -0.36 | -6.18 | 36.7M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1.50 USD | 10.3% | 1.44 USD | 2.38 USD | -0.54 | -6.46 | 58.4M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 1.36 USD | 3.0% | 1.44 USD | 2.40 USD | -0.80 | -13.89 | 47.6M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 1.32 USD | 4.8% | 1.43 USD | 2.41 USD | -1.04 | -16.19 | 97.2M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 1.26 USD | 9.6% | 1.43 USD | 2.42 USD | -1.30 | -24.17 | 57.0M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 1.15 USD | -1.7% | 1.42 USD | 2.43 USD | -1.32 | -29.65 | 79.4M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 1.17 USD | -6.4% | 1.42 USD | 2.44 USD | -1.14 | -27.56 | 50.9M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 1.25 USD | -2.3% | 1.42 USD | 2.46 USD | -0.93 | -26.93 | 41.0M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 1.28 USD | -0.8% | 1.42 USD | 2.47 USD | -0.66 | -23.80 | 44.3M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 1.29 USD | -7.2% | 1.42 USD | 2.49 USD | -0.42 | -22.95 | 119.1M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 1.39 USD | -12.0% | 1.42 USD | 2.50 USD | -0.10 | -17.67 | 77.3M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 1.58 USD | 5.3% | 1.41 USD | 2.51 USD | 0.31 | -1.64 | 54.1M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.