NCMI NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

National CineMedia Inc · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

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Latest close 4.01 USD
6.4% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 58.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.4%, after a 1.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 38/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 48/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 2d.

Setup score 40 out of 100
Latest Close 4.01 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 6.4% latest completed week
4W Return 1.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 10.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 3.8% 2 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.7x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 2-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
  • Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 6.4% Latest completed week; four-week move 1.0%. Indicator stack 9/71 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 38/100 conviction; expected move 28.1%. News sentiment 48/100 51 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 2d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 58.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.4%, after a 1.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.4312-week average 0.20

12-week confirmation

Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.43Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 1.0% over four weeks, 10.4% over 12 weeks, and -11.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 2 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W6.4%
4W1.0%
12W10.4%
26W13.1%
52W-11.3%
Active trend streak2 weeks
Active weeks in one year2
Trend breadth3.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.22Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-6.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-3.26Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change69.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 87%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength32/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 69; rank 1 is best.
Value67/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
Quality18/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Momentum15/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 86; rank 1 is best.
Growth28/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.5x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
8.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
36.4%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-3.2%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
11.1%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-1.9%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
1.7%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-43.2%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
3.2%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
4.2%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
7.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-1.0x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

NCMI shows mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 28.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction38/100
Expected move28.1%
Put/call volume
Pressure11
Speculation0
Volatility96
Trend agreement91
Open options detail
Insider activity9 / 11

9 acquisitions and 11 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

5 positive · 37 neutral · 9 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings2dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move28.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-18.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+13.1%Week of 5 Jun.
Worst week-23.7%Week of 15 May.
Latest week+6.4%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains10
Modest gains2
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses5
Recent vol9.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol6.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split21/30Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.7% / -4.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape37/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 37/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis41/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.43; No reversal markers Factors32/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 14; Small Cap Core rank 25 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options58/100

NCMI shows mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 28.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 28.1% Sentiment48/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

National Cinemedia Inc (NCMI) Risk Assessment: Volatility, Financial Risk & Investment Risk Insiders9 / 11

9 acquisitions and 11 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings2d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20264.01 USD6.4%3.47 USD4.65 USD1.22-3.261.2MOn
24 Jul 20263.77 USD-0.3%3.47 USD4.64 USD1.30-9.231.5MOn
17 Jul 20263.78 USD-3.1%3.47 USD4.64 USD1.44-11.321.7MOff
10 Jul 20263.90 USD-1.8%3.47 USD4.64 USD1.35-13.121.1MOff
3 Jul 20263.97 USD5.9%3.47 USD4.63 USD1.31-10.832.4MOff
26 Jun 20263.75 USD10.3%3.48 USD4.63 USD1.18-15.773.4MOff
19 Jun 20263.40 USD-6.3%3.49 USD4.63 USD0.84-27.812.1MOff
12 Jun 20263.63 USD2.3%3.52 USD4.62 USD0.61-22.032.0MOff
5 Jun 20263.55 USD13.1%3.52 USD4.62 USD0.31-23.062.2MOff
29 May 20263.14 USD5.0%3.53 USD4.62 USD0.30-35.861.5MOff
22 May 20262.99 USD7.9%3.57 USD4.62 USD0.41-38.221.3MOff
15 May 20262.77 USD-23.7%3.61 USD4.62 USD0.63-42.872.3MOff
8 May 20263.63 USD7.6%3.66 USD4.62 USD0.95-26.511.2MOff
1 May 20263.38 USD-3.7%3.67 USD4.61 USD0.66-28.931.2MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.