- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 57.09% based on similar historical setup states.
NSSC
NASDAQ
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Latest close
37.08 USD
3.7%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 43.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.7%, after a -1.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 27/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 21d.
Setup score
36
out of 100
Latest Close
37.08 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
3.7%
latest completed week
4W Return
-1.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-8.8%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
71.2%
37 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.7x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
3.7%
Latest completed week; four-week move -1.9%.
Indicator stack
39/26
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 57.09%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Mixed
27/100 conviction; expected move 11.1%.
News sentiment
56/100
52 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
21d
Next report is scheduled for 24 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -7.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 43.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.7%, after a -1.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.7x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2112-week average 0.36
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.21Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -1.9% over four weeks, -8.8% over 12 weeks, and 24.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year37
Trend breadth71.2%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.09Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-48.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-15.15Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change9.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 02 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 95%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength46/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 55; rank 1 is best.
Value6/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Quality98/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 3; rank 1 is best.
Momentum78/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 23; rank 1 is best.
Growth73/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 28; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 35.9x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 6.7x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.8x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 4.9% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 57.0% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 21.9% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 30.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 53.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 8.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -18.6% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 7.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 6/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 1.6% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 1.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -2.4x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningMixed
NSSC shows mixed options pressure with a 27/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.00, expected move of 11.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction27/100
Expected move11.1%
Put/call volume1.00
Insider activity6 / 6
6 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment56/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.
22 positive · 26 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings21dNext report is scheduled for 24 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move11.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-22.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher17 of 269 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.3%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-12.6%Week of 8 May.
Latest week+3.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains5
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses2
Sharp losses7
Recent vol5.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.8% / -4.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Industrials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-3.6%
Trend breadth52.0%
Trend52.0%active weekly trend signals
MD54.0%positive activity pressure
RS53.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Security & Protection Services
4-week rank10 / 21
Group average-4.7%
Trend breadth19.0%
Trend19.0%active weekly trend signals
MD42.9%positive activity pressure
RS23.8%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape36/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 36/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis12/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.21; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 57.09%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 57.09% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors56/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 59; Small Cap Core rank 96 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options44/100NSSC shows mixed options pressure with a 27/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 1.00, expected move of 11.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 11.1% Sentiment56/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 52 relevant articles.
Vanguard Capital Management (NSSC) discloses 1.79M-share, 5.02% position in Napco Insiders6 / 66 acquisitions and 6 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings21dNext report is scheduled for 24 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 37.08 USD | 3.7% | 39.88 USD | 36.13 USD | -1.09 | -15.15 | 1.4M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 35.74 USD | -1.1% | 40.01 USD | 36.11 USD | -1.04 | -17.77 | 1.2M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 36.12 USD | 0.1% | 40.24 USD | 36.10 USD | -0.85 | -18.24 | 1.3M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 36.07 USD | -4.6% | 40.46 USD | 36.10 USD | -0.71 | -21.79 | 2.0M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 37.79 USD | 1.3% | 40.65 USD | 36.09 USD | -0.73 | -16.71 | 1.1M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 37.29 USD | -0.3% | 40.75 USD | 36.05 USD | -0.86 | -17.12 | 3.1M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 37.39 USD | 0.5% | 40.84 USD | 36.02 USD | -1.04 | -20.65 | 3.5M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 37.22 USD | 6.9% | 40.86 USD | 36.00 USD | -1.21 | -18.92 | 1.9M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 34.82 USD | -6.8% | 40.95 USD | 35.99 USD | -1.30 | -22.41 | 1.9M | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 37.38 USD | 0.3% | 41.18 USD | 36.00 USD | -1.03 | -20.55 | 1.8M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 37.26 USD | 3.3% | 41.39 USD | 35.98 USD | -0.59 | -18.57 | 2.2M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 36.07 USD | -11.3% | 41.60 USD | 35.98 USD | -0.19 | -20.26 | 2.0M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 40.66 USD | -12.6% | 41.83 USD | 35.96 USD | 0.16 | -10.47 | 3.0M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 46.53 USD | 1.8% | 41.86 USD | 35.91 USD | 0.14 | 8.23 | 1.4M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.