AVAL NYSE Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Grupo Aval · Financial Services · Banks - Regional

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Latest close 4.78 USD
-2.8% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 5.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 59.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.8%, after a -5.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 13d.

Setup score 54 out of 100
Latest Close 4.78 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return -2.8% latest completed week
4W Return -5.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return 9.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.5x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 81-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -2.8% Latest completed week; four-week move -5.6%. Indicator stack 100/45 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 58.72% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 51/100 51 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 13d Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 5.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 59.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.8%, after a -5.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.5x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6612-week average 0.60

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership11/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.66Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -5.6% over four weeks, 9.3% over 12 weeks, and 65.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 81 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-2.8%
4W-5.6%
12W9.3%
26W3.7%
52W65.8%
Active trend streak81 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.13Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-90.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership7.54Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-59.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength25/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Value39/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Quality37/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 64; rank 1 is best.
Momentum39/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Growth39/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
-
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
42.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
12.4%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
5.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
5.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
30.6%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
34.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
8/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
7.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

8 positive · 39 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-22.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.3%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+15.6%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-11.7%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week-2.8%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains6
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses6
Recent vol7.3%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.8% / -4.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape59/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 59/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis73/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 11/12.

Activity pressure 0.66; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 58.72%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 58.72% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors33/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 50; Small Cap Core rank 62 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 51 relevant articles.

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores SA (AVAL) Balance Sheet Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings13d

Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 20264.78 USD-2.8%4.52 USD2.86 USD0.137.54718.3KOn
17 Jul 20264.92 USD-3.0%4.50 USD2.84 USD0.4810.71790.4KOn
10 Jul 20265.07 USD0.2%4.47 USD2.82 USD0.8213.03652.6KOn
3 Jul 20265.06 USD-0.1%4.43 USD2.81 USD1.1415.14554.3KOn
26 Jun 20265.07 USD-11.7%4.40 USD2.79 USD1.2918.642.7MOn
19 Jun 20265.73 USD3.6%4.37 USD2.77 USD1.0832.181.1MOn
12 Jun 20265.53 USD15.6%4.31 USD2.74 USD0.6030.071.6MOn
5 Jun 20264.79 USD4.1%4.26 USD2.72 USD0.0614.172.2MOn
29 May 20264.60 USD9.3%4.24 USD2.70 USD-0.267.551.4MOn
22 May 20264.20 USD5.5%4.23 USD2.68 USD-0.420.291.1MOn
15 May 20263.99 USD-11.3%4.22 USD2.67 USD-0.28-3.792.1MOn
8 May 20264.49 USD2.7%4.21 USD2.66 USD-0.048.95852.9KOn
1 May 20264.37 USD-4.7%4.18 USD2.64 USD-0.089.011.1MOn
24 Apr 20264.59 USD-3.1%4.15 USD2.63 USD-0.1816.051.0MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.