LYL ASX Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Lycopodium Limited · Industrials · Engineering & Construction

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Latest close 17.80 AUD
-4.7% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive trend

The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 80.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.7%, after a 2.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 55/100.

Setup score 68 out of 100
Latest Close 17.80 AUD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -4.7% latest completed week
4W Return 2.7% short-term follow-through
12W Return 35.0% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 82.7% 43 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 8-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -4.7% Latest completed week; four-week move 2.7%. Indicator stack 73/68 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.49% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 55/100 19 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 18.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 80.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.7%, after a 2.7% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7712-week average 0.40

12-week confirmation

Trend active8/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.77Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 2.7% over four weeks, 35.0% over 12 weeks, and 63.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 8 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-4.7%
4W2.7%
12W35.0%
26W15.2%
52W63.2%
Active trend streak8 weeks
Active weeks in one year43
Trend breadth82.7%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.01Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change0.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership25.49Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-12.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025 Field coverage 85% Model confidence 45%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength97/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 4; rank 1 is best.
Value84/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Quality99/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
Momentum96/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 5; rank 1 is best.
Growth4/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework77/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
17.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
2.2x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
10.0x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
92.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
15.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
10.6%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
44.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-3.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-16.8%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
44.1%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
4/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.5%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.9x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 19 relevant articles.

5 positive · 13 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-8.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.2%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-4.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week-4.7%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains4
Modest gains7
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses4
Recent vol7.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split29/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew3.9% / -2.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape66/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 66/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis68/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 8/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.77; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.49%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.49% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors93/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 9; Small Cap Core rank 81 SVQF77/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 62.0 of 262 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 19 relevant articles.

From FEED to Detailed Design: Lycopodium (ASX:LYL) Advances Pilgangoora’s P2000 Plan Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202617.80 AUD-4.7%15.01 AUD11.55 AUD1.0125.49183.0KOn
24 Jul 202618.67 AUD1.4%14.88 AUD11.49 AUD1.1235.89163.5KOn
17 Jul 202618.41 AUD-2.5%14.72 AUD11.43 AUD1.1334.99123.4KOn
10 Jul 202618.88 AUD8.9%14.55 AUD11.36 AUD1.2039.73444.9KOn
3 Jul 202617.34 AUD-4.5%14.36 AUD11.30 AUD1.0029.12221.4KOn
26 Jun 202618.15 AUD-1.7%14.21 AUD11.24 AUD1.0537.6953.9KOn
19 Jun 202618.46 AUD18.2%14.03 AUD11.18 AUD0.8840.6451.3KOn
12 Jun 202615.62 AUD-2.7%13.83 AUD11.12 AUD0.2920.7511.1KOn
5 Jun 202616.05 AUD8.3%13.74 AUD11.07 AUD-0.1727.66410.0KOff
29 May 202614.82 AUD14.9%13.61 AUD11.03 AUD-0.8217.4551.6KOff
22 May 202612.90 AUD0.8%13.53 AUD10.99 AUD-1.183.76123.2KOff
15 May 202612.80 AUD-3.0%13.52 AUD10.96 AUD-1.173.55152.5KOff
8 May 202613.19 AUD3.5%13.50 AUD10.94 AUD-1.165.60103.2KOff
1 May 202612.75 AUD-0.4%13.47 AUD10.91 AUD-1.172.60157.2KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.