SERA NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Sera Prognostics Inc · Healthcare · Medical Devices

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Latest close 2.04 USD
-0.5% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -8.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 20.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a 2.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 54/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.

Setup score 32 out of 100
Latest Close 2.04 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -0.5% latest completed week
4W Return 2.0% short-term follow-through
12W Return 8.5% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 32.7% 17 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -0.5% Latest completed week; four-week move 2.0%. Indicator stack 18/68 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Recent Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Volatility 54/100 conviction; expected move 124.4%. News sentiment 50/100 62 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 4d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -8.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 20.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -0.5%, after a 2.0% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1012-week average 0.06

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure10/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.10Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 2.0% over four weeks, 8.5% over 12 weeks, and -24.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-0.5%
4W2.0%
12W8.5%
26W-26.1%
52W-24.4%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year17
Trend breadth32.7%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.47Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change119.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-29.03Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change18.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 82% Model confidence 78%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength4/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Value30/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
Quality1/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 100; rank 1 is best.
Momentum8/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 93; rank 1 is best.
Growth12/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1408.3x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-33.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
-191.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-56373.7%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-45812.3%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-36.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-50.4%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
2/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

SERA shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 124.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction54/100
Expected move124.4%
Put/call volume0.00
Pressure100
Speculation9
Volatility96
Trend agreement0
Open options detail
Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 62 relevant articles.

4 positive · 54 neutral · 4 negative
Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move124.4%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-48.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher11 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+20.3%Week of 22 May.
Worst week-18.3%Week of 12 Jun.
Latest week-0.5%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains2
Flat weeks1
Modest losses4
Sharp losses10
Recent vol9.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol11.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew9.7% / -8.5%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape28/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 28/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis28/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 10/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.10; No reversal markers Factors9/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 60; Small Cap Core rank 75 Patient CapitalRecent

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Options36/100

SERA shows volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 124.4%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 124.4% Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 62 relevant articles.

Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings4d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 20262.04 USD-0.5%2.23 USD4.58 USD0.47-29.03217.8KOff
24 Jul 20262.05 USD0.0%2.26 USD4.59 USD0.39-28.92182.5KOff
17 Jul 20262.05 USD4.1%2.31 USD4.59 USD0.33-30.93196.8KOff
10 Jul 20261.97 USD-1.5%2.36 USD4.60 USD0.20-37.03145.4KOff
3 Jul 20262.00 USD11.1%2.41 USD4.61 USD0.21-35.61102.4KOff
26 Jun 20261.80 USD2.9%2.45 USD4.62 USD0.29-41.98196.6KOff
19 Jun 20261.75 USD-6.4%2.50 USD4.63 USD0.35-47.27207.4KOff
12 Jun 20261.87 USD-18.3%2.55 USD4.64 USD0.47-42.47294.7KOff
5 Jun 20262.29 USD6.0%2.59 USD4.65 USD0.32-28.12221.2KOff
29 May 20262.16 USD4.3%2.59 USD4.66 USD0.02-35.17249.2KOff
22 May 20262.07 USD20.3%2.63 USD4.66 USD-0.36-36.10666.5KOff
15 May 20261.72 USD-8.5%2.68 USD4.67 USD-0.80-46.39504.9KOff
8 May 20261.88 USD-1.6%2.73 USD4.68 USD-0.98-42.09226.1KOff
1 May 20261.91 USD-5.0%2.77 USD4.69 USD-1.07-38.4373.6KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.