AJL ASX Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

AJ Lucas Group Limited · Basic Materials · Coking Coal

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Latest close 0.01 AUD
6.3% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 22.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.3%, after a 6.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.

Setup score 27 out of 100
Latest Close 0.01 AUD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 6.3% latest completed week
4W Return 6.3% short-term follow-through
12W Return -15.0% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 61.5% 32 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.2x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 6.3% Latest completed week; four-week move 6.3%. Indicator stack 34/30 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 28.21% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. News sentiment 50/100 7 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.4% below the Trend Line and sits at 22.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 6.3%, after a 6.3% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.2x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.0412-week average 0.39

12-week confirmation

Trend active1/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.04Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 6.3% over four weeks, -15.0% over 12 weeks, and 41.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W6.3%
4W6.3%
12W-15.0%
26W-22.7%
52W41.7%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year32
Trend breadth61.5%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.06Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-18.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-12.24Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change22.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025 Field coverage 70% Model confidence 37%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength87/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Value76/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Quality75/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 26; rank 1 is best.
Momentum76/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Growth76/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework45/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.1x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
9.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
2.2%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
71.0%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
4.9%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
2.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
11.5%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
-8.5%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-83.5%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
2/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
8.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 7 relevant articles.

0 positive · 7 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-50.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher8 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+12.5%Week of 12 Jun.
Worst week-11.1%Week of 29 May.
Latest week+6.3%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains8
Modest gains0
Flat weeks8
Modest losses0
Sharp losses10
Recent vol7.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol16.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split17/17Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew14.6% / -9.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape25/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 25/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis11/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 1/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.04; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 28.21%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 28.21% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors78/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 21 SVQF45/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 143.5 of 262 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 7 relevant articles.

AJ Lucas Group Limited Revenue Breakdown – ASX:AJL Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 20260.01 AUD6.3%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-1.06-12.24725.6KOff
17 Jul 20260.01 AUD0.0%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.99-17.232.1KOff
10 Jul 20260.01 AUD0.0%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.98-16.990Off
3 Jul 20260.01 AUD0.0%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.95-17.051.8MOff
26 Jun 20260.01 AUD-11.1%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.90-15.8126.4MOff
19 Jun 20260.01 AUD0.0%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-1.04-5.43500.0KOff
12 Jun 20260.01 AUD12.5%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-1.01-4.63731.4KOff
5 Jun 20260.01 AUD0.0%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-1.01-12.974.4MOff
29 May 20260.01 AUD-11.1%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-1.09-13.6812.5KOff
22 May 20260.01 AUD5.9%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.93-1.902.5MOff
15 May 20260.01 AUD-5.6%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.68-6.536.0MOff
8 May 20260.01 AUD-10.0%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD-0.23-1.841.1MOn
1 May 20260.01 AUD-9.1%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD0.139.613.7MOn
24 Apr 20260.01 AUD-8.3%0.01 AUD0.01 AUD0.4220.721.0MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.