- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 59.44% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
MDU
NYSE
Week ended 31 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
MDU Resources Group Inc · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Latest close
19.95 USD
-6.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 61.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.1%, after a -3.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 46/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 55/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 4d.
Setup score
44
out of 100
Latest Close
19.95 USD
31 Jul 2026
1W Return
-6.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
-3.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-10.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
84.6%
44 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.8x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-6.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move -3.7%.
Indicator stack
47/23
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 59.44%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
46/100 conviction; expected move 9.2%.
News sentiment
55/100
50 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
4d
Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.9% below the Trend Line and sits at 61.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -6.1%, after a -3.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5712-week average 0.80
12-week confirmation
Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure4/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership5/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.57Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -3.7% over four weeks, -10.7% over 12 weeks, and 20.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year44
Trend breadth84.6%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.20Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-65.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-7.16Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-142.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 100%
Model confidence 96%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength70/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Value69/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 32; rank 1 is best.
Quality22/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Momentum77/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 24; rank 1 is best.
Growth2/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework23/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 23.5x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.5x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.2x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 17.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 28.2% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 17.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 66.2% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 5.4% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -2.1% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -27.8% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 13.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 2.6% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 2.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 4.8x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
MDU shows bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.10, expected move of 9.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction46/100
Expected move9.2%
Put/call volume0.10
Insider activity4 / 0
4 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment55/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.
13 positive · 34 neutral · 3 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move9.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-12.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
6 Mar
3 Apr
1 May
29 May
26 Jun
31 Jul
Weeks higher16 of 2610 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.9%Week of 27 Mar.
Worst week-6.9%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-6.1%Week of 31 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains2
Modest gains14
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses4
Recent vol2.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.5% / -2.9%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Utilities
4-week rank62 / 100
Group average-3.1%
Trend breadth47.0%
Trend47.0%active weekly trend signals
MD38.0%positive activity pressure
RS14.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Utilities - Regulated Gas
4-week rank14 / 16
Group average0.7%
Trend breadth31.3%
Trend31.2%active weekly trend signals
MD37.5%positive activity pressure
RS6.2%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape46/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 46/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis53/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 4/12, relative leadership 5/12.
Activity pressure 0.57; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 59.44%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 59.44% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors58/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 65; Small Cap Core rank 64 SVQF23/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 785.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options45/100MDU shows bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.10, expected move of 9.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 9.2% Sentiment55/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 50 relevant articles.
MDU Resources Group Inc (MDU) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis Insiders4 / 04 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings4dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 19.95 USD | -6.1% | 20.97 USD | 15.73 USD | -1.20 | -7.16 | 6.2M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 21.25 USD | 0.5% | 20.96 USD | 15.67 USD | -1.16 | -0.05 | 5.4M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 21.14 USD | 0.8% | 20.90 USD | 15.61 USD | -0.82 | -0.98 | 7.0M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 20.98 USD | 1.3% | 20.82 USD | 15.54 USD | -0.75 | -3.13 | 7.2M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 20.71 USD | -5.3% | 20.77 USD | 15.48 USD | -0.72 | -2.96 | 7.0M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 21.88 USD | 2.8% | 20.70 USD | 15.41 USD | -0.57 | 4.84 | 9.9M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 21.29 USD | 0.9% | 20.67 USD | 15.34 USD | -0.74 | -0.17 | 7.2M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 21.11 USD | -0.5% | 20.63 USD | 15.27 USD | -0.29 | 0.05 | 6.1M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 21.22 USD | 1.3% | 20.60 USD | 15.20 USD | 0.18 | 1.24 | 7.6M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 20.94 USD | -4.9% | 20.58 USD | 15.14 USD | 0.61 | -2.50 | 8.0M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 22.01 USD | 0.1% | 20.50 USD | 15.07 USD | 1.02 | 3.94 | 13.3M | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 21.99 USD | -1.6% | 20.42 USD | 14.99 USD | 0.89 | 4.81 | 8.7M | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 22.34 USD | -0.5% | 20.32 USD | 14.92 USD | 0.85 | 6.77 | 9.4M | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 22.45 USD | 3.7% | 20.18 USD | 14.84 USD | 0.76 | 9.84 | 8.1M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.