WMG NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Warner Music Group · Communication Services · Entertainment

Open interactive chart View report data
Latest close 25.96 USD
-2.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 22.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.2%, after a -8.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bearish with 49/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 57/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 5d.

Setup score 25 out of 100
Latest Close 25.96 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -2.2% latest completed week
4W Return -8.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return -21.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 30.8% 16 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.1x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.29% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -2.2% Latest completed week; four-week move -8.2%. Indicator stack 17/0 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.29% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bearish 49/100 conviction; expected move 8.5%. News sentiment 57/100 64 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 5d Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -9.8% below the Trend Line and sits at 22.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -2.2%, after a -8.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.1x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.3612-week average 0.43

12-week confirmation

Trend active5/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.36Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -8.2% over four weeks, -21.8% over 12 weeks, and -7.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-2.2%
4W-8.2%
12W-21.8%
26W-12.4%
52W-7.1%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year16
Trend breadth30.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.57Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-2472.0%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-20.32Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-12.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength6/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Value18/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Quality28/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
Momentum19/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Growth66/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 35; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
30.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
14.6x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
45.8%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
10.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
14.0%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
11.7%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
12.6%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
0.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-14.9%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.9%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.4%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBearish

WMG shows bearish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 2.09, expected move of 8.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction49/100
Expected move8.5%
Put/call volume2.09
Pressure-47
Speculation2
Volatility66
Trend agreement84
Open options detail
Insider activity8 / 3

8 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment57/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

20 positive · 41 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings5dNext report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-26.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.8%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher10 of 2616 weeks finished lower.
Best week+19.2%Week of 8 May.
Worst week-12.6%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week-2.2%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains5
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses8
Recent vol6.8%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.2%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/29Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.3% / -3.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape26/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 26/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis37/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 5/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.36; 2 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.29%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.29% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors16/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 36; Small Cap Core rank 81 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options50/100

WMG shows bearish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 2.09, expected move of 8.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Bearish · Put-side pressure · Expected move 8.5% Sentiment57/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Trims Warner Music Group Corp (WMG) Stake -- Shares Trade 26% Below GF Value Insiders8 / 3

8 acquisitions and 3 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings5d

Next report is scheduled for 06 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202625.96 USD-2.2%28.79 USD30.06 USD-0.57-20.3212.8MOff
24 Jul 202626.55 USD-6.3%28.93 USD30.08 USD-0.37-18.499.1MOff
17 Jul 202628.33 USD-2.3%29.03 USD30.10 USD-0.12-14.938.1MOff
10 Jul 202628.99 USD2.5%29.05 USD30.10 USD0.04-17.0312.3MOff
3 Jul 202628.28 USD4.9%29.00 USD30.09 USD0.02-18.019.3MOff
26 Jun 202626.96 USD-4.3%29.00 USD30.08 USD0.22-21.549.7MOff
19 Jun 202628.17 USD-1.0%29.03 USD30.06 USD0.42-22.038.6MOn
12 Jun 202628.46 USD-4.9%29.11 USD30.04 USD0.79-19.488.2MOn
5 Jun 202629.93 USD-5.1%29.15 USD30.02 USD1.17-13.6915.0MOn
29 May 202631.54 USD-8.7%29.14 USD29.97 USD1.35-13.3611.2MOn
22 May 202634.53 USD3.9%29.14 USD29.92 USD1.18-2.6614.0MOn
15 May 202633.25 USD0.2%29.06 USD29.84 USD0.81-5.2116.7MOff
8 May 202633.18 USD19.2%29.03 USD29.78 USD0.43-5.8918.9MOff
1 May 202627.83 USD-3.3%28.98 USD29.72 USD-0.08-16.9811.6MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.