VEL NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Velocity Financial Llc · Financial Services · Mortgage Finance

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Latest close 17.54 USD
0.7% latest week
Weekly setup

Weak trend

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 24.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.7%, after a -5.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is mixed with 35/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 29 out of 100
Latest Close 17.54 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 0.7% latest completed week
4W Return -5.5% short-term follow-through
12W Return -3.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 46.2% 24 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 0.7% Latest completed week; four-week move -5.5%. Indicator stack 25/0 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 35/100 conviction; expected move 12.5%. News sentiment 52/100 64 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -4.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 24.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.7%, after a -5.5% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1912-week average 0.21

12-week confirmation

Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.19Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -5.5% over four weeks, -3.8% over 12 weeks, and 7.3% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W0.7%
4W-5.5%
12W-3.8%
26W-13.6%
52W7.3%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year24
Trend breadth46.2%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.65Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-686.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-13.28Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-46.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength42/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 59; rank 1 is best.
Value68/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Quality19/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Momentum28/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
Growth99/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 2; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
6.3x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
1.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
20.2x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
0.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
68.6%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
52.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
3.9%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
3.6%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
44.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
56.0%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-13.0%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.4%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.4%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
18.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

VEL shows mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 12.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction35/100
Expected move12.5%
Put/call volume
Pressure-12
Speculation0
Volatility80
Trend agreement84
Open options detail
Insider activity5 / 8

5 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

6 positive · 55 neutral · 3 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move12.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-18.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+4.9%Week of 10 Apr.
Worst week-7.0%Week of 10 Jul.
Latest week+0.7%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains1
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses3
Recent vol3.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.8% / -2.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape27/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 27/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis12/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.19; No reversal markers Factors38/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Cornerstone Growth rank 73; Buyback Yield rank 75; Small Cap Core rank 65 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options55/100

VEL shows mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of n/a, expected move of 12.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 12.5% Sentiment52/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 64 relevant articles.

Velocity Financial Inc (VEL) Institutional Confidence Insiders5 / 8

5 acquisitions and 8 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 05 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 202617.54 USD0.7%18.37 USD17.62 USD-0.65-13.28435.5KOff
24 Jul 202617.41 USD-0.5%18.44 USD17.59 USD-0.42-13.17638.6KOff
17 Jul 202617.50 USD1.3%18.51 USD17.55 USD-0.16-13.49497.9KOff
10 Jul 202617.27 USD-7.0%18.58 USD17.52 USD-0.13-16.22382.4KOff
3 Jul 202618.57 USD1.9%18.66 USD17.48 USD-0.08-9.09465.5KOff
26 Jun 202618.22 USD3.9%18.66 USD17.44 USD-0.33-9.20637.9KOff
19 Jun 202617.54 USD-0.1%18.70 USD17.39 USD-0.66-15.02343.9KOff
12 Jun 202617.56 USD0.6%18.73 USD17.36 USD-0.80-14.62365.7KOff
5 Jun 202617.46 USD-0.2%18.76 USD17.32 USD-0.88-15.15428.2KOff
29 May 202617.50 USD1.9%18.80 USD17.28 USD-0.84-17.38262.9KOff
22 May 202617.17 USD1.2%18.84 USD17.23 USD-0.65-18.07390.0KOff
15 May 202616.97 USD-7.0%18.89 USD17.18 USD-0.43-18.64523.8KOff
8 May 202618.24 USD-6.1%18.93 USD17.13 USD-0.18-12.69494.8KOff
1 May 202619.42 USD-0.3%18.92 USD17.07 USD-0.14-5.14186.6KOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.