Ticker Options Intelligence

NGVC options intelligence

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 40 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 19:02 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

NGVC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.28.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 13.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.28

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.75

Balanced tape

Trend fit 68

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +6.8%

RS -3.1

Expected move 13.9%
Put-call volume 0.75
Volume / OI 0.28
Reference IV 0.98
Max pain 35.00
Underlying 30.01
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 24

Research Brief

NGVC has a bullish chain read with 40/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 25.85–34.17; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.

Priced range25.85–34.17
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference35.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 25.85 to 34.17. Max pain at 35.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
25.8530.01 ± 4.1634.17
Confirmation level

A close beyond 34.17 or below 25.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 40/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 22/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure22 × 42%
+9.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement68 × 26%
+17.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score39.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
4
22.50-25.0%
0
5
25.00-16.7%
0
11
30.000.0%
1
21
35.0016.6%
13
0
40.0033.3%
10
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.30× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.98 21 Aug 21d
1.11 18 Sep 49d
0.75 18 Dec 140d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

25
30
35
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
24 / 24
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

87/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $34458 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+22
1W price+6.8%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split C 74% / P 26% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.28 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 68/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $16935 estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$16935
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $8000 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$8000
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $4000 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$4000
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $1238 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$1238
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1100 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$1100

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close32.06
1W+6.8%
RS-3.1
Fair value+14.2%
Options pressure22
Speculation14
Volatility96
Trend fit68

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 13.9% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.98 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.75 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.28 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:20 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 17.4%
30 Jul 11:04 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 22.6%
31 Jul 10:43 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 16.4%
31 Jul 15:57 Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 13.5%
31 Jul 17:07 Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 13.9%
31 Jul 18:02 Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 13.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 5
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike35.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 13
Puts · V 20 · OI 21
Strike40.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV0.98
Put-call6.50
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV1.11
Put-call0.13
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.75
Put-call0.10

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.75
Put IV1.10
Skew0.35
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.76
Put IV1.27
Skew0.51
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.74
Skew0.20

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNGVC260918P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI2
IV1.53
ContractNGVC261218P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.54
ContractNGVC261218P00035000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.67
ContractNGVC261218P00025000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.74
ContractNGVC261218P00022500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.91
ContractNGVC260821P00035000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume20
OI21
IV0.68
ContractNGVC261218C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume14
OI14
IV1.41
ContractNGVC260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume10
OI12
IV0.63