Ticker Options Intelligence

XPO options intelligence

XPO Logistics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 41 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 13:39 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

XPO currently carries bullish options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 7.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.23

Call-side skew

Trend fit 48

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -5.7%

RS 8.6

Expected move 7.6%
Put-call volume 0.23
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.38
Max pain 200.00
Underlying 213.01
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 700

Research Brief

XPO has a bullish chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 196.86–229.16; The largest call open-interest concentration is 270.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00.

Priced range196.86–229.16
Call concentration270.00
Put concentration160.00
Max pain reference200.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 196.86 to 229.16. Max pain at 200.00 sits inside that range, 6.1% below spot.

Spot Max pain
196.86213.01 ± 16.15229.16
Confirmation level

A close beyond 229.16 or below 196.86 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 41/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 50/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure50 × 42%
+21.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility57 × 10%
+5.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score41.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 270.00; the largest put concentration is 160.00. The most active strike by current volume is 250.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
35
135.00-36.6%
1
36
140.00-34.3%
1
3004
155.00-27.2%
3
3370
160.00-24.9%
13
34
175.00-17.8%
1
10
180.00-15.5%
25
14
185.00-13.1%
76
47
190.00-10.8%
59
270
195.00-8.5%
42
396
200.00-6.1%
121
33
210.00-1.4%
103
43
220.003.3%
104
11
230.008.0%
75
21
240.0012.7%
133
0
250.0017.4%
118
0
260.0022.1%
158
0
270.0026.8%
748
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.81× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.38 21 Aug 21d
0.38 18 Sep 49d
0.44 20 Nov 112d
0.43 18 Dec 140d
0.43 15 Jan 168d
0.45 19 Feb 203d
0.45 19 Mar 231d
0.46 17 Jun 321d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
700 / 700
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Short-dated OTM call concentration

67/100
Primary intent Short-dated OTM call concentration

Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $39500 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+50
1W price-5.7%
Call premium76%
Put premium24%
Notional split C 76% / P 24% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 48/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $16740 estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$16740
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $7310 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$7310
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 11 contracts traded, $6985 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$6985
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 87 contracts traded, $4175 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$4175
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $1985 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1985

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close200.97
1W-5.7%
RS8.6
Fair value+53.9%
Options pressure50
Speculation8
Volatility57
Trend fit48

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 7.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.38 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.23 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:15 Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 10.8%
30 Jul 10:12 Volatility
Pressure -31
Move 11.1%
31 Jul 13:02 Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 8.4%
1 Aug 00:16 Bearish
Pressure -48
Move 7.6%
1 Aug 12:39 Bullish
Pressure 50
Move 7.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.06
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.38
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.43
Put-call3.50
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts98
Avg IV0.43
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.07
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.37
Skew-0.03
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.43
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.43
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.44
Skew0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractXPO260821C00250000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike250.00
Volume77
OI118
IV0.32
ContractXPO260821C00220000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume10
OI104
IV0.42
ContractXPO260918P00170000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike170.00
Volume6
OI3729
IV0.40
ContractXPO260821C00195000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike195.00
Volume4
OI42
IV0.42
ContractXPO270115P00140000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike140.00
Volume4
OI26
IV0.49
ContractXPO260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume3
OI121
IV0.42
ContractXPO261218P00195000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike195.00
Volume3
OI8
IV0.42
ContractXPO260821P00190000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike190.00
Volume2
OI47
IV0.36