XPO NYSE Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

XPO Logistics Inc · Industrials · Trucking

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Latest close 201.0 USD
-5.7% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 73.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -5.7%, after a -2.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 57/100.

Setup score 56 out of 100
Latest Close 201.0 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -5.7% latest completed week
4W Return -2.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return -1.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 98.1% 51 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.0x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 51-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.10% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 7 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -5.7% Latest completed week; four-week move -2.6%. Indicator stack 99/12 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.10% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 40/100 conviction; expected move 7.5%. News sentiment 57/100 32 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 30 Jul Latest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 1.4% above the Trend Line and sits at 73.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -5.7%, after a -2.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.0x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7312-week average 0.80

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure2/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.73Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers77 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 7 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -2.6% over four weeks, -1.7% over 12 weeks, and 69.2% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 51 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-5.7%
4W-2.6%
12W-1.7%
26W35.7%
52W69.2%
Active trend streak51 weeks
Active weeks in one year51
Trend breadth98.1%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.94Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-267.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership8.65Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-40.0%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 93%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength35/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
Value4/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Quality77/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 24; rank 1 is best.
Momentum86/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 15; rank 1 is best.
Growth33/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 68; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework13/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
71.9x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
3.0x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
23.7x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
5.5%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
12.2%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
8.3%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
19.2%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
9.0%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
3.6%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-10.5%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
7.8%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.6%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.1x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

XPO shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.23, expected move of 7.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction40/100
Expected move7.5%
Put/call volume0.23
Pressure50
Speculation8
Volatility57
Trend agreement44
Open options detail
Insider activity0 / 1

0 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment57/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 32 relevant articles.

11 positive · 20 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings30 JulLatest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.
Options expected move7.5%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-13.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+37.5%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-12.6%Week of 19 Jun.
Latest week-5.7%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses5
Recent vol4.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol7.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.6% / -3.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape60/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 60/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis61/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 2/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.73; 7 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.10%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.10% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors49/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 34 SVQF13/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 886.0 of 1013 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options54/100

XPO shows bullish options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.23, expected move of 7.5%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 7.5% Sentiment57/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 32 relevant articles.

XPO Looks 54.9% Overvalued on GF Value™ as Momentum Outpaces Val Insiders0 / 1

0 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings30 Jul

Latest stored earnings date was 30 Jul 2026.

 Research flow1 items

1 recent research articles and 0 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026201.0 USD-5.7%198.3 USD130.6 USD-0.948.657.1MOn
24 Jul 2026213.0 USD-0.9%196.2 USD129.7 USD-0.8817.114.7MOn
17 Jul 2026215.0 USD3.4%193.8 USD128.8 USD-0.7518.164.6MOn
10 Jul 2026207.9 USD0.8%191.2 USD127.9 USD-0.6813.193.6MOn
3 Jul 2026206.3 USD2.4%189.3 USD126.9 USD-0.2614.425.0MOn
26 Jun 2026201.5 USD1.0%187.2 USD126.0 USD-0.1114.729.4MOn
19 Jun 2026199.5 USD-12.6%185.2 USD125.1 USD0.0211.507.7MOn
12 Jun 2026228.3 USD4.3%183.0 USD124.1 USD-0.0229.468.3MOn
5 Jun 2026218.9 USD2.2%179.8 USD123.0 USD-0.2925.906.2MOn
29 May 2026214.2 USD5.6%177.2 USD121.9 USD-0.2321.0713.4MOn
22 May 2026202.9 USD-0.6%174.9 USD120.9 USD-0.0917.185.8MOn
15 May 2026204.2 USD-0.1%172.3 USD119.9 USD0.2819.647.3MOn
8 May 2026204.5 USD-5.0%169.8 USD118.9 USD0.6520.647.3MOn
1 May 2026215.3 USD-3.8%167.3 USD117.8 USD0.8530.857.8MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.