Ticker Options Intelligence

SIRI options intelligence

Sirius XM Holding Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 54 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 13:14 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

SIRI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.18.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 3.3%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.18

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.06

Call-side skew

Trend fit 8

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.6%

RS 16.0

Expected move 3.3%
Put-call volume 0.06
Volume / OI 0.18
Reference IV 0.30
Max pain 34.50
Underlying 29.62
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 766

Research Brief

SIRI has a bullish chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 28.65–30.59; The largest call open-interest concentration is 32.00; the largest put concentration is 34.50. The most active strike by current volume is 31.00.

Priced range28.65–30.59
Call concentration32.00
Put concentration34.50
Max pain reference34.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 28.65 to 30.59. Max pain at 34.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
28.6529.62 ± 0.9730.59
Confirmation level

A close beyond 30.59 or below 28.65 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 54/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 93/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure93 × 42%
+39.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation44 × 22%
+9.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement8 × 26%
+2.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score54.4Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 32.00; the largest put concentration is 34.50. The most active strike by current volume is 31.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
25.00-15.6%
2
258
27.00-8.8%
0
13
28.00-5.5%
4
14
28.50-3.8%
1
11
29.00-2.1%
45
35
29.50-0.4%
7
24
30.001.3%
24
424
30.503.0%
12
153
31.004.7%
33
32
31.506.3%
73
39
32.008.0%
105
8
32.509.7%
38
34
33.0011.4%
18
0
33.5013.1%
14
26
34.0014.8%
20
869
34.5016.5%
0
0
40.0035.0%
43
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.88× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.30 7 Aug 7d
0.33 14 Aug 14d
0.32 21 Aug 21d
0.35 28 Aug 28d
0.34 4 Sep 35d
0.33 11 Sep 42d
0.32 18 Sep 49d
0.33 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

24
25
25
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
30
31
31
32
32
33
33
34
35
35
36
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
766 / 766
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Short-dated OTM call concentration

94/100
Primary intent Short-dated OTM call concentration

Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+93
1W price-0.6%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split C 90% / P 10% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.18 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 8/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 5934 contracts traded, $810810 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$810810
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1011 contracts traded, $575272 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$575272
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 1039 contracts traded, $438128 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$438128
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 31727 contracts traded, $395972 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$395972
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 474 contracts traded, $67640 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$67640

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close29.62
1W-0.6%
RS16.0
Fair value+6.2%
Options pressure93
Speculation44
Volatility34
Trend fit8

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 3.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.30 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.06 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.18 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:28 Volatility
Pressure -39
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 10:23 Volatility
Pressure 20
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 10:20 Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 3.8%
1 Aug 12:14 Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 3.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike23.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike24.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike24.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 6 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.02
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV0.33
Put-call4.14
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.36
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.35
Put-call6.92
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.34
Put-call1.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.31
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.35
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.35
Skew0.03
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.25
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.35
Skew0.04

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSIRI260807C00031000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike31.00
Volume15851
OI33
IV0.36
ContractSIRI260807C00031500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike31.50
Volume15751
OI73
IV0.39
ContractSIRI270115C00033000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike33.00
Volume5088
OI343
IV0.32
ContractSIRI270917C00027000
SideCall
Expiry17 Sep 2027
Strike27.00
Volume1005
OI1011
IV0.30
ContractSIRI270917C00030000
SideCall
Expiry17 Sep 2027
Strike30.00
Volume1000
OI33
IV0.32
ContractSIRI260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume703
OI425
IV0.31
ContractSIRI270115C00045000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.00
Volume458
OI268
IV0.40
ContractSIRI261120P00028000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike28.00
Volume409
OI8
IV0.38