Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
TSM options intelligence
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 7 Aug 2026
Checked 7 Aug 2026 20:50 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
TSM currently carries mixed options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.
Expected move
3.4%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.07
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.34
Put-side skew
Trend fit
88
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.2%
RS 11.4
Expected move
3.4%
Put-call volume
1.34
Volume / OI
0.07
Reference IV
0.46
Max pain
400.00
Underlying
404.25
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
TSM has a mixed chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 390.60–417.90; The largest call open-interest concentration is 420.00; the largest put concentration is 400.00. The most active strike by current volume is 420.00.
Priced range390.60–417.90
Call concentration420.00
Put concentration400.00
Max pain reference400.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 390.60 to 417.90. Max pain at 400.00 sits inside that range, 1.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
390.60404.25 ± 13.65417.90
Confirmation level
A close beyond 417.90 or below 390.60 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 17/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure17 × 42%
+7.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement88 × 26%
+22.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility46 × 10%
+4.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 420.00; the largest put concentration is 400.00. The most active strike by current volume is 420.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2369
355.00-12.2%
8
2268
370.00-8.5%
87
2800
380.00-6.0%
1904
2319
385.00-4.8%
272
343
387.50-4.1%
1536
1288
390.00-3.5%
822
357
397.50-1.7%
1315
3769
400.00-1.1%
2532
663
405.000.2%
1456
692
407.500.8%
325
1760
410.001.4%
2140
386
415.002.7%
1507
1041
420.003.9%
6448
226
425.005.1%
2121
858
430.006.4%
2671
91
435.007.6%
3563
25
440.008.8%
3120
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$49.3MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak425.00+$32.9M
Negative peak400.00-$61.7M
Nearest balance404.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
380.00-6.0%
-$54.2M
382.50-5.4%
-$1.3M
385.00-4.8%
-$5.9M
387.50-4.1%
+$1.3M
390.00-3.5%
-$12.4M
392.50-2.9%
-$2.5M
395.00-2.3%
-$3.9M
397.50-1.7%
+$1.7M
400.00-1.1%
-$61.7M
402.50-0.4%
-$4.1M
405.000.2%
+$2.7M
407.500.8%
-$7.0M
410.001.4%
+$2.9M
412.502.0%
-$4.2M
415.002.7%
+$8.1M
417.503.3%
+$894,711
420.003.9%
+$12.1M
422.504.5%
+$8.4M
425.005.1%
+$32.9M
427.505.8%
+$972,070
430.006.4%
+$15.4M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.46
7 Aug
0d
0.40
14 Aug
7d
0.40
21 Aug
14d
0.41
28 Aug
21d
0.42
4 Sep
28d
0.42
11 Sep
35d
0.41
18 Sep
42d
0.44
16 Oct
70d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
325
333
340
348
355
365
373
380
388
395
403
410
418
425
433
440
450
458
465
473
485
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
1 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move0.2%
30 Jul
Mixed · 42
0.2% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain88%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 7 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 2276
- 88% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $191.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-17
1W price+0.2%
Call premium63%
Put premium37%
Notional split
C 63% / P 37%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.07
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
88/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1621 contracts traded, $32.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$32.2M
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 2934 contracts traded, $30.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$30.2M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 8255 contracts traded, $25.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$25.3M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 12966 contracts traded, $15.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$15.2M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 3690 contracts traded, $14.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$14.7M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
8 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 8 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close404.25
1W+0.2%
RS11.4
Fair value+87.8%
Options pressure-17
Speculation42
Volatility46
Trend fit88
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 8/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 8/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 8/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
31 Jul 22:22
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 0.5%
1 Aug 02:39
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 0.5%
1 Aug 06:33
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 5.4%
2 Aug 14:03
Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 5.3%
3 Aug 13:50
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 5.0%
3 Aug 15:10
Bullish
Pressure 22
Move 4.8%
3 Aug 16:30
Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 4.6%
3 Aug 18:00
Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 4.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 413
Strike225.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 16
Puts · V 176 · OI 364
Strike230.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 13
Puts · V 226 · OI 543
Strike235.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 23 · OI 505
Strike240.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 773
Strike245.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 13 · OI 487
Strike250.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 569
Strike255.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 172
Puts · V 2 · OI 676
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts182
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.48
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts181
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.92
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts169
Avg IV0.40
Put-call3.17
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts132
Avg IV0.41
Put-call1.52
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts103
Avg IV0.42
Put-call1.53
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.69
Skew0.55
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.40
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.39
Skew0.00
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.40
Skew-0.01
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.39
Skew-0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractTSM270917P00560000
SidePut
Expiry17 Sep 2027
Strike560.00
Volume-
OI39
IV0.38
ContractTSM260814C00260000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike260.00
Volume-
OI28
IV1.62
ContractTSM270917P00550000
SidePut
Expiry17 Sep 2027
Strike550.00
Volume-
OI27
IV0.38
ContractTSM260828C00265000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike265.00
Volume-
OI26
IV1.05
ContractTSM261016P00570000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike570.00
Volume-
OI25
IV0.42
ContractTSM260807C00352500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike352.50
Volume-
OI20
IV1.97
ContractTSM260828P00495000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike495.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.45
ContractTSM260828C00260000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike260.00
Volume-
OI20
IV1.07
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.