Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
RIO options intelligence
Rio Tinto ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
32
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 12:08 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
RIO currently carries mixed options pressure with a 32/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
9.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.90
Balanced tape
Trend fit
57
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+6.2%
RS 8.0
Expected move
9.8%
Put-call volume
0.90
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.36
Max pain
95.00
Underlying
91.22
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
540
Research Brief
RIO has a mixed chain read with 32/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 82.32–100.12; The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00.
Priced range82.32–100.12
Call concentration95.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference95.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 82.32 to 100.12. Max pain at 95.00 sits inside that range, 4.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
82.3291.22 ± 8.90100.12
Confirmation level
A close beyond 100.12 or below 82.32 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 32/100
Pressure is 9/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure9 × 42%
+3.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation33 × 22%
+7.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility64 × 10%
+6.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 95.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 95.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
55.00-39.7%
0
10
60.00-34.2%
0
1355
65.00-28.7%
0
163
70.00-23.3%
1
403
75.00-17.8%
20
4859
80.00-12.3%
21
1139
85.00-6.8%
390
1930
90.00-1.3%
1025
1666
95.004.1%
2676
84
100.009.6%
2118
6
105.0015.1%
1396
153
110.0020.6%
905
0
115.0026.1%
73
0
120.0031.6%
2
0
125.0037.0%
1
0
130.0042.5%
5
0
135.0048.0%
6
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.36
21 Aug
22d
0.29
18 Sep
50d
0.31
16 Oct
78d
0.33
18 Dec
141d
0.33
15 Jan
169d
0.34
19 Mar
232d
0.33
17 Jun
322d
0.32
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 540 / 540
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.4M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+9
1W price+6.2%
Call premium74%
Put premium26%
Notional split
C 74% / P 26%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
57/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1722 contracts traded, $575282 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$575282
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 701 contracts traded, $347745 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$347745
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 118 contracts traded, $326215 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$326215
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 137 contracts traded, $207950 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$207950
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 261 contracts traded, $203580 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$203580
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close96.85
1W+6.2%
RS8.0
Fair value+46.6%
Options pressure9
Speculation33
Volatility64
Trend fit57
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 7.8%
30 Jul 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 47
Move 8.4%
30 Jul 17:31
Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 9.1%
31 Jul 11:08
Mixed
Pressure 9
Move 9.8%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1355
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 2 · OI 163
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 18 · OI 403
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 21
Puts · V 826 · OI 4859
Strike85.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 390
Puts · V 49 · OI 1139
Strike90.00
Calls · V 261 · OI 1025
Puts · V 247 · OI 1930
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.73
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.29
Put-call1.54
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.31
Put-call1.19
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.33
Put-call3.08
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts84
Avg IV0.33
Put-call1.28
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.41
Skew0.15
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.38
Skew0.11
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.39
Skew0.10
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.39
Skew0.09
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.38
Skew0.08
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractRIO260821C00095000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume1359
OI2676
IV0.27
ContractRIO260821P00080000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume826
OI4859
IV0.47
ContractRIO260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume302
OI2118
IV0.26
ContractRIO260821P00095000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume296
OI1666
IV0.41
ContractRIO261016P00095000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike95.00
Volume273
OI174
IV0.38
ContractRIO260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume261
OI1025
IV0.29
ContractRIO260821P00090000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume247
OI1930
IV0.41
ContractRIO260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume239
OI1101
IV0.38
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.