Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
CCXI options intelligence
Churchill Capital Corp XI options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
57
Market data through 5 Aug 2026
Checked 6 Aug 2026 12:35 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
CCXI currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 20.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.
Expected move
20.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.19
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.10
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+19.9%
RS -69.1
Expected move
20.7%
Put-call volume
0.10
Volume / OI
0.19
Reference IV
0.77
Max pain
15.00
Underlying
13.86
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
82
Research Brief
CCXI has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.99–16.73; The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50.
Priced range10.99–16.73
Call concentration15.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference15.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 10.99 to 16.73. Max pain at 15.00 sits inside that range, 8.2% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
10.9913.86 ± 2.8716.73
Confirmation level
A close beyond 16.73 or below 10.99 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 57/100
Pressure is 90/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure90 × 42%
+37.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation44 × 22%
+9.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility94 × 10%
+9.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 15.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 17.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
5.00-63.9%
0
0
7.50-45.9%
0
87
10.00-27.8%
300
1176
12.50-9.8%
925
2784
15.008.2%
8279
27
17.5026.3%
3571
12
20.0044.3%
3896
0
22.5062.3%
678
0
25.0080.4%
182
0
30.00116.5%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$263,659Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak20.00+$103,576
Negative peak12.50-$17,343
Nearest balance12.89Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
5.00-63.9%
-$22
7.50-45.9%
-$52
10.00-27.8%
-$5,823
12.50-9.8%
-$17,343
15.008.2%
+$94,993
17.5026.3%
+$73,177
20.0044.3%
+$103,576
22.5062.3%
+$6,915
25.0080.4%
+$7,138
30.00116.5%
+$1,101
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.77
21 Aug
16d
0.91
18 Sep
44d
1.02
20 Nov
107d
1.24
19 Feb
198d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
13
15
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 5 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 82 / 82
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.8M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+90
1W price+19.9%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split
C 97% / P 3%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.19
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1487 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1783 contracts traded, $957,275 estimated gross traded notional, and 34% of visible notional.
$957,275
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 3349 contracts traded, $355,990 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$355,990
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1323 contracts traded, $287,005 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$287,005
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 454 contracts traded, $46,340 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$46,340
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
6 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 6 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close16.62
1W+19.9%
RS-69.1
Fair value-52.4%
Options pressure90
Speculation44
Volatility94
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 6/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 6/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 6/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:22
Bullish
Pressure 75
Move 19.7%
30 Jul 11:10
Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 13.3%
31 Jul 10:44
Volatility
Pressure 62
Move 14.4%
3 Aug 10:00
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 23.8%
4 Aug 11:00
Volatility
Pressure 93
Move 19.5%
5 Aug 11:24
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 19.8%
6 Aug 11:35
Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 20.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 300
Puts · V 10 · OI 87
Strike12.50
Calls · V 108 · OI 925
Puts · V 85 · OI 1176
Strike15.00
Calls · V 524 · OI 8279
Puts · V 424 · OI 2784
Strike17.50
Calls · V 1785 · OI 3571
Puts · V 28 · OI 27
Strike20.00
Calls · V 899 · OI 3896
Puts · V 2 · OI 12
Strike22.50
Calls · V 111 · OI 678
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.16
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.91
Put-call0.14
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV1.02
Put-call0.14
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV1.24
Put-call0.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.47
Put IV0.89
Skew-0.58
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.39
Put IV0.91
Skew-0.48
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.31
Put IV0.90
Skew-0.41
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.61
Put IV1.05
Skew-0.57
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCCXI260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume1785
OI3571
IV1.21
ContractCCXI270219C00012500
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike12.50
Volume1261
OI53
IV1.30
ContractCCXI270219C00020000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike20.00
Volume1051
OI42
IV1.44
ContractCCXI260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume899
OI3896
IV1.47
ContractCCXI260918C00017500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.50
Volume752
OI617
IV1.26
ContractCCXI260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume524
OI8279
IV1.11
ContractCCXI260821P00015000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume424
OI2784
IV1.05
ContractCCXI270219C00015000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike15.00
Volume369
OI921
IV1.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.