Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
NBIX options intelligence
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
45
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 02:17 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
NBIX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.08.
Expected move
6.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.08
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.46
Call-side skew
Trend fit
57
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.1%
RS 6.0
Expected move
6.4%
Put-call volume
0.46
Volume / OI
0.08
Reference IV
0.24
Max pain
145.00
Underlying
175.77
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
500
Research Brief
NBIX has a bullish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 164.55–186.99; The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 145.00. The most active strike by current volume is 175.00.
Priced range164.55–186.99
Call concentration135.00
Put concentration145.00
Max pain reference145.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 164.55 to 186.99. Max pain at 145.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
164.55175.77 ± 11.22186.99
Confirmation level
A close beyond 186.99 or below 164.55 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 45/100
Pressure is 39/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure39 × 42%
+16.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation42 × 22%
+9.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility42 × 10%
+4.2
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 135.00; the largest put concentration is 145.00. The most active strike by current volume is 175.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
105.00-40.3%
9
302
120.00-31.7%
1
0
130.00-26.0%
46
4
135.00-23.2%
314
308
145.00-17.5%
123
26
150.00-14.7%
38
17
155.00-11.8%
31
16
160.00-9.0%
260
16
165.00-6.1%
57
14
170.00-3.3%
157
7
175.00-0.4%
90
6
180.002.4%
87
0
185.005.3%
90
0
190.008.1%
78
0
195.0010.9%
46
0
200.0013.8%
63
0
210.0019.5%
93
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.24
21 Aug
21d
0.28
18 Sep
49d
0.33
20 Nov
112d
0.33
18 Dec
140d
0.32
15 Jan
168d
0.34
19 Feb
203d
0.35
19 Mar
231d
0.38
17 Dec
504d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 500 / 500
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment
Call concentration and the underlying trend align, but aggregate volume cannot establish whether calls were bought or sold.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Call-heavy activity with trend alignment matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+39
1W price-5.1%
Call premium68%
Put premium32%
Notional split
C 68% / P 32%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.08
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
57/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 262 contracts traded, $803385 estimated gross traded notional, and 51% of visible notional.
$803385
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 218 contracts traded, $286360 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$286360
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 54 contracts traded, $168210 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$168210
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 103 contracts traded, $107378 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$107378
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 102 contracts traded, $77365 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$77365
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close166.80
1W-5.1%
RS6.0
Fair value+26.2%
Options pressure39
Speculation42
Volatility42
Trend fit57
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:21
Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 10.5%
30 Jul 10:16
Volatility
Pressure 36
Move 10.2%
30 Jul 17:55
Volatility
Pressure 50
Move 10.0%
31 Jul 09:28
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 11.2%
31 Jul 23:13
Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 6.4%
1 Aug 00:01
Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 6.4%
1 Aug 01:17
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 6.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.12
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.15
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.14
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.50
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts70
Avg IV0.32
Put-call4.22
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.31
Skew-0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.30
Skew-
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.34
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.33
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNBIX271217C00170000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike170.00
Volume208
OI2052
IV0.40
ContractNBIX270115P00165000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike165.00
Volume105
OI5
IV0.32
ContractNBIX271217C00220000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike220.00
Volume54
OI58
IV0.38
ContractNBIX271217P00180000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike180.00
Volume54
OI54
IV0.37
ContractNBIX260821C00175000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike175.00
Volume52
OI90
IV0.31
ContractNBIX260821C00170000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike170.00
Volume50
OI157
IV0.33
ContractNBIX270115P00170000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike170.00
Volume50
OI2
IV0.32
ContractNBIX270319P00165000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike165.00
Volume50
OI-
IV0.34
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.