Ticker Options Intelligence

CNQ options intelligence

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:01 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

CNQ currently carries bullish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 2.1%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.44

Call-side skew

Trend fit 52

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +2.7%

RS 16.1

Expected move 2.1%
Put-call volume 0.44
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.40
Max pain 43.00
Underlying 46.44
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 666

Research Brief

CNQ has a bullish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 45.46–47.42; The largest call open-interest concentration is 47.50; the largest put concentration is 43.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00.

Priced range45.46–47.42
Call concentration47.50
Put concentration43.00
Max pain reference43.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 45.46 to 47.42. Max pain at 43.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
45.4646.44 ± 0.9847.42
Confirmation level

A close beyond 47.42 or below 45.46 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 46/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure46 × 42%
+19.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement52 × 26%
+13.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 47.50; the largest put concentration is 43.00. The most active strike by current volume is 45.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
47
35.00-24.6%
3
77
36.00-22.5%
3
31
38.00-18.2%
4
83
40.00-13.9%
171
25
41.00-11.7%
310
408
42.00-9.6%
9
115
42.50-8.5%
9
501
43.00-7.4%
78
56
43.50-6.3%
5
39
44.00-5.3%
71
27
44.50-4.2%
47
38
45.00-3.1%
144
131
46.00-0.9%
52
1
46.500.1%
223
7
47.001.2%
48
0
47.502.3%
2200
5
48.003.4%
155
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.28× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.40 31 Jul 1d
0.39 7 Aug 8d
0.39 14 Aug 15d
0.35 21 Aug 22d
0.36 28 Aug 29d
0.33 4 Sep 36d
0.27 11 Sep 43d
0.34 18 Sep 50d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

38
39
39
40
41
42
42
43
44
45
45
46
47
48
48
49
50
51
52
53
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
666 / 666
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

77/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $441180 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+46
1W price+2.7%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split C 89% / P 11% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 52/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 142 contracts traded, $146620 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$146620
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 106 contracts traded, $79505 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$79505
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 187 contracts traded, $40672 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$40672
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 173 contracts traded, $40655 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$40655
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 75 contracts traded, $26530 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$26530

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close47.68
1W+2.7%
RS16.1
Fair value+46.0%
Options pressure46
Speculation40
Volatility37
Trend fit52

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 2.1% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.40 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.44 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:03 Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 10:02 Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 10:01 Bullish
Pressure 46
Move 2.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike25.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike31.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike32.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 14
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike33.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike34.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 47
Strike36.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 77

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.40
Put-call0.56
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.23
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.42
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.35
Put-call0.06
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.36
Put-call0.05

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.16
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.42
Skew0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.39
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.34
Skew-0.15
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.37
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCNQ260918C00047500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike47.50
Volume187
OI983
IV0.31
ContractCNQ260918P00047500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike47.50
Volume173
OI1335
IV0.34
ContractCNQ260731P00045000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike45.00
Volume125
OI38
IV0.47
ContractCNQ270115P00025000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike25.00
Volume70
OI1126
IV0.36
ContractCNQ260821C00045000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike45.00
Volume56
OI1934
IV0.37
ContractCNQ260821C00048000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike48.00
Volume50
OI93
IV0.35
ContractCNQ260821C00047000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike47.00
Volume48
OI132
IV0.34
ContractCNQ260731C00047000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike47.00
Volume40
OI48
IV0.80