Ticker Options Intelligence

MPLX options intelligence

MPLX LP options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 19:35 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MPLX currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 5.4%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.34

Call-side skew

Trend fit 34

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.3%

RS 1.4

Expected move 5.4%
Put-call volume 0.34
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.24
Max pain 55.00
Underlying 58.45
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 148

Research Brief

MPLX has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 55.30–61.60; The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00.

Priced range55.30–61.60
Call concentration60.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference55.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 55.30 to 61.60. Max pain at 55.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
55.3058.45 ± 3.1561.60
Confirmation level

A close beyond 61.60 or below 55.30 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 57/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure57 × 42%
+24.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement34 × 26%
+8.8

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility38 × 10%
+3.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score45.6Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 60.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
30.00-48.7%
104
0
35.00-40.1%
107
0
40.00-31.6%
129
54
45.00-23.0%
63
911
50.00-14.5%
57
1746
55.00-5.9%
209
19
60.002.7%
5142
2
65.0011.2%
147
0
70.0019.8%
15
0
75.0028.3%
0
0
80.0036.9%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.51× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.24 21 Aug 21d
0.20 18 Sep 49d
0.19 18 Dec 140d
0.18 15 Jan 168d
0.18 19 Mar 231d
0.16 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

50
55
60
65
70
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
148 / 148
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

73/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow before price confirmation

Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+57
1W price-0.3%
Call premium98%
Put premium2%
Notional split C 98% / P 2% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 34/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 539 contracts traded, $846030 estimated gross traded notional, and 75% of visible notional.
$846030
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 101 contracts traded, $233315 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$233315
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 130 contracts traded, $11585 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$11585
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 157 contracts traded, $7595 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$7595
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $6385 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$6385

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close58.45
1W-0.3%
RS1.4
Fair value+35.9%
Options pressure57
Speculation40
Volatility38
Trend fit34

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.24 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.34 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:07 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 10:05 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 6.0%
30 Jul 23:27 Bullish
Pressure 49
Move 6.4%
1 Aug 18:35 Bullish
Pressure 57
Move 5.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 104
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 107
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 129
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 63
Puts · V 0 · OI 54
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 57
Puts · V 13 · OI 911
Strike55.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 209
Puts · V 146 · OI 1746
Strike60.00
Calls · V 68 · OI 5142
Puts · V 5 · OI 19
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 147
Puts · V 2 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.24
Put-call2.08
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.20
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.19
Put-call2.86
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.18
Put-call0.32
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.18
Put-call3.42

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.26
Skew0.11
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.11
Put IV0.24
Skew0.13
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.25
Skew0.10
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.26
Skew0.12
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.27
Skew0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMPLX260918C00045000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume342
OI48
IV0.01
ContractMPLX260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume151
OI22535
IV0.11
ContractMPLX260821P00055000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume146
OI1746
IV0.26
ContractMPLX260918C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume88
OI47
IV0.01
ContractMPLX260918C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume82
OI79
IV0.49
ContractMPLX260821C00060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume68
OI5142
IV0.15
ContractMPLX261218P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike45.00
Volume60
OI175
IV0.29
ContractMPLX270319P00045000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike45.00
Volume40
OI57
IV0.28