Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MLI options intelligence
Mueller Industries Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 18:02 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
MLI currently carries bearish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
6.2%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.72
Put-side skew
Trend fit
88
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+3.9%
RS 6.2
Expected move
6.2%
Put-call volume
1.72
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.36
Max pain
57.50
Underlying
66.41
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
180
Research Brief
MLI has a bearish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 62.29–70.53; The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.50.
Priced range62.29–70.53
Call concentration65.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference57.50
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 62.29 to 70.53. Max pain at 57.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
62.2966.41 ± 4.1270.53
Confirmation level
A close beyond 70.53 or below 62.29 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 18/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure18 × 42%
+7.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation12 × 22%
+2.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement88 × 26%
+23.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 57.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
8
42.50-36.0%
0
1
45.00-32.2%
0
0
47.50-28.5%
0
26
50.00-24.7%
8
18
52.50-20.9%
1
113
55.00-17.2%
21
36
57.50-13.4%
17
21
60.00-9.7%
286
14
62.50-5.9%
23
0
65.00-2.1%
309
4
67.501.6%
51
0
70.005.4%
128
0
72.509.2%
7
0
75.0012.9%
28
0
77.5016.7%
70
0
80.0020.5%
2
0
82.5024.2%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$450,669Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak65.00+$111,549
Negative peak45.00-$2,813
Nearest balance56.12Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
40.00-39.8%
+$541
42.50-36.0%
-$34
45.00-32.2%
-$2,813
47.50-28.5%
+$5,017
50.00-24.7%
+$3,855
52.50-20.9%
-$227
55.00-17.2%
-$1,976
57.50-13.4%
+$2,444
60.00-9.7%
+$59,636
62.50-5.9%
+$4,979
65.00-2.1%
+$111,549
67.501.6%
+$67,956
70.005.4%
+$73,522
72.509.2%
+$18,546
75.0012.9%
+$23,263
77.5016.7%
+$41,199
80.0020.5%
+$38,936
82.5024.2%
+$4,806
85.0028.0%
+$494
87.5031.8%
+$39
90.0035.5%
-$1,051
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.36
21 Aug
21d
0.35
18 Sep
49d
0.33
18 Dec
140d
0.34
19 Mar
231d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
55
58
60
63
65
68
70
73
75
78
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 180 / 180
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $20,302 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-18
1W price+3.9%
Call premium69%
Put premium31%
Notional split
C 69% / P 31%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
88/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $10,200 estimated gross traded notional, and 50% of visible notional.
$10,200
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 18 contracts traded, $3,015 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$3,015
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $1,455 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1,455
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 17 contracts traded, $1,225 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$1,225
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $1,010 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$1,010
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close66.41
1W+3.9%
RS6.2
Fair value+66.5%
Options pressure-18
Speculation12
Volatility50
Trend fit88
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:23
Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 7.9%
30 Jul 10:19
Bullish
Pressure 95
Move 8.1%
31 Jul 09:46
Bearish
Pressure -32
Move 8.1%
2 Aug 17:02
Bearish
Pressure -18
Move 6.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike42.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike47.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 26
Strike52.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 21
Puts · V 1 · OI 113
Strike57.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 17
Puts · V 15 · OI 36
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 286
Puts · V 0 · OI 21
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.36
Put-call1.05
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.35
Put-call7.33
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.33
Put-call2.67
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.37
Skew0.06
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.36
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.34
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.35
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMLI260918P00062500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike62.50
Volume18
OI41
IV0.36
ContractMLI260821P00057500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike57.50
Volume15
OI36
IV0.46
ContractMLI260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume10
OI28
IV0.50
ContractMLI261218P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike45.00
Volume8
OI36
IV0.52
ContractMLI260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume6
OI128
IV0.31
ContractMLI260821P00062500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike62.50
Volume4
OI14
IV0.37
ContractMLI260918P00070000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume3
OI2
IV0.30
ContractMLI260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume2
OI92
IV0.29
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.