Ticker Options Intelligence

CGBD options intelligence

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 57 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 16:50 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CGBD currently carries volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 5.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 5.3%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 17.00

Put-side skew

Trend fit 48

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.5%

RS -20.1

Expected move 5.3%
Put-call volume 17.00
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.98
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.99
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 70

Research Brief

CGBD has a volatility chain read with 57/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.46–10.52; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range9.46–10.52
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 9.46 to 10.52. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
9.469.99 ± 0.5310.52
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.52 or below 9.46 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 57/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 84/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure84 × 42%
+35.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score57.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-75.0%
0
0
5.00-49.9%
0
11
7.50-24.9%
0
269
10.000.1%
52
35
12.5025.1%
356
0
15.0050.2%
46
0
17.5075.2%
1
0
20.00100.2%
0
0
22.50125.2%
0
0
25.00150.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.33× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.98 21 Aug 21d
0.56 18 Sep 49d
0.55 20 Nov 112d
0.30 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
70 / 70
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

89/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2320 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-84
1W price-0.5%
Call premium26%
Put premium74%
Notional split C 26% / P 74% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 48/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 40 contracts traded, $1200 estimated gross traded notional, and 52% of visible notional.
$1200
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $535 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$535
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $400 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$400
Puts · 91+ days · ATM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $108 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$108
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $78 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$78

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.99
1W-0.5%
RS-20.1
Fair value-20.2%
Options pressure-84
Speculation8
Volatility77
Trend fit48

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 5.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.98 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 17.00 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:19 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 6.2%
30 Jul 10:37 Volatility
Pressure -95
Move 6.2%
31 Jul 02:51 Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 5.5%
31 Jul 20:57 Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 5.2%
1 Aug 15:50 Volatility
Pressure -84
Move 5.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 52
Puts · V 40 · OI 269
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 356
Puts · V 0 · OI 35
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 46
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.98
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.56
Put-call5.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.55
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.30
Put-call1.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.60
Skew0.14
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.40
Skew0.10
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.27
Skew0.08
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.20
Skew0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCGBD260821P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume40
OI269
IV0.32
ContractCGBD260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume10
OI11
IV0.29
ContractCGBD260918C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.50
Volume2
OI8
IV0.71
ContractCGBD270219P00010000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike10.00
Volume1
OI21
IV0.40
ContractCGBD270219C00010000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike10.00
Volume1
OI3
IV0.23
ContractCGBD260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI356
IV0.46
ContractCGBD261120C00012500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI212
IV0.19
ContractCGBD261120C00010000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI133
IV0.26