Ticker Options Intelligence

OWL options intelligence

Blue Owl Capital Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 35 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 00:51 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

OWL currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 8.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.03

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.88

Balanced tape

Trend fit 60

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +9.0%

RS -25.6

Expected move 8.6%
Put-call volume 0.88
Volume / OI 0.03
Reference IV 1.95
Max pain 9.50
Underlying 9.45
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 398

Research Brief

OWL has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.64–10.26; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 9.50. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00.

Priced range8.64–10.26
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration9.50
Max pain reference9.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 8.64 to 10.26. Max pain at 9.50 sits inside that range, 0.5% above spot.

Spot Max pain
8.649.45 ± 0.8110.26
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.26 or below 8.64 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 35/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 3/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure3 × 42%
+1.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement60 × 26%
+15.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility91 × 10%
+9.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score34.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 9.50. The most active strike by current volume is 10.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
3.00-68.3%
81
2
4.00-57.7%
64
1
4.50-52.4%
147
0
5.00-47.1%
4
0
6.00-36.5%
40
70
7.00-25.9%
80
58
7.50-20.6%
5
188
8.00-15.3%
77
825
8.50-10.1%
27
951
9.00-4.8%
654
1646
9.500.5%
3700
437
10.005.8%
4902
2
10.5011.1%
887
2
11.0016.4%
1138
1
11.5021.7%
66
1
12.0027.0%
2
0
12.5032.3%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.66× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.95 31 Jul 0d
0.74 7 Aug 7d
0.74 14 Aug 14d
0.56 21 Aug 21d
0.55 28 Aug 28d
0.53 4 Sep 35d
0.53 18 Sep 49d
0.46 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

8
9
9
10
10
11
11
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes99%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
398 / 398
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

75/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+3
1W price+9.0%
Call premium51%
Put premium49%
Notional split C 51% / P 49% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.03 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 60/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 2220 contracts traded, $707995 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$707995
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 1691 contracts traded, $477768 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$477768
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 6212 contracts traded, $233871 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$233871
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 5227 contracts traded, $148489 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$148489
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 2579 contracts traded, $145946 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$145946

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close10.30
1W+9.0%
RS-25.6
Fair value-32.1%
Options pressure3
Speculation41
Volatility91
Trend fit60

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 8.6% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.95 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.88 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:22 Volatility
Pressure -47
Move 6.6%
30 Jul 10:16 Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 6.1%
31 Jul 13:08 Bullish
Pressure 44
Move 7.6%
31 Jul 17:20 Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 9.7%
31 Jul 19:59 Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 7.8%
31 Jul 23:51 Mixed
Pressure 3
Move 8.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike3.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 81
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike4.00
Calls · V 9 · OI 64
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike4.50
Calls · V 6 · OI 147
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike5.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 40
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike7.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 80
Puts · V 30 · OI 70
Strike7.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 5
Puts · V 50 · OI 58

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV1.95
Put-call0.04
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.25
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV0.74
Put-call0.12
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.90
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts19
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.29

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV2.03
Skew1.47
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.61
Skew0.11
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.59
Skew0.06
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.58
Skew0.14
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.57
Skew0.10

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractOWL260918P00017000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI53
IV1.49
ContractOWL260814C00004000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI11
IV2.63
ContractOWL260918P00018000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike18.00
Volume-
OI6
IV1.58
ContractOWL270219P00014000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike14.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.88
ContractOWL261218P00017000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike17.00
Volume-
OI4
IV1.00
ContractOWL260814C00008000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike8.00
Volume-
OI4
IV1.27
ContractOWL260821P00002000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI3
IV3.66
ContractOWL260807C00007500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume-
OI3
IV1.87