Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
LUMN options intelligence
Lumen Technologies Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 10:21 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
LUMN currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.
Expected move
14.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.04
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.81
Put-side skew
Trend fit
80
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+0.6%
RS -21.6
Expected move
14.7%
Put-call volume
1.81
Volume / OI
0.04
Reference IV
1.36
Max pain
6.50
Underlying
6.38
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
516
Research Brief
LUMN has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 5.45–7.31; The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 6.00. The most active strike by current volume is 6.50.
Priced range5.45–7.31
Call concentration8.00
Put concentration6.00
Max pain reference6.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 5.45 to 7.31. Max pain at 6.50 sits inside that range, 1.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
5.456.38 ± 0.937.31
Confirmation level
A close beyond 7.31 or below 5.45 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 26/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure26 × 42%
+10.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement80 × 26%
+20.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 8.00; the largest put concentration is 6.00. The most active strike by current volume is 6.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
3
2.50-60.8%
23
4
3.00-53.0%
5
19
4.00-37.3%
40
56
4.50-29.5%
10
101
5.00-21.6%
39
424
5.50-13.8%
103
425
6.00-6.0%
259
292
6.501.9%
399
253
7.009.7%
809
190
7.5017.6%
529
18
8.0025.4%
990
1
8.5033.2%
394
10
9.0041.1%
461
13
9.5048.9%
28
3
10.0056.7%
138
0
10.5064.6%
67
1
11.5080.3%
57
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.36
7 Aug
7d
1.16
14 Aug
14d
0.93
21 Aug
21d
0.90
28 Aug
28d
0.88
4 Sep
35d
0.83
11 Sep
42d
0.88
18 Sep
49d
0.81
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
6
6
7
7
8
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 516 / 516
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $602743 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-26
1W price+0.6%
Call premium50%
Put premium50%
Notional split
C 50% / P 50%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.04
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
80/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 3453 contracts traded, $189109 estimated gross traded notional, and 31% of visible notional.
$189109
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 7262 contracts traded, $134736 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$134736
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 2204 contracts traded, $90468 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$90468
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 520 contracts traded, $46944 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$46944
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 524 contracts traded, $21484 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$21484
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close6.38
1W+0.6%
RS-21.6
Fair value+33.8%
Options pressure-26
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit80
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:26
Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 6.9%
30 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 5.4%
30 Jul 15:28
Volatility
Pressure 77
Move 4.3%
30 Jul 16:57
Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 3.9%
31 Jul 02:05
Bullish
Pressure 68
Move 4.5%
2 Aug 09:21
Volatility
Pressure -26
Move 14.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 23
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike3.00
Calls · V 19 · OI 5
Puts · V 19 · OI 4
Strike3.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 40
Puts · V 1 · OI 19
Strike4.50
Calls · V 6 · OI 10
Puts · V 5 · OI 56
Strike5.00
Calls · V 21 · OI 39
Puts · V 16 · OI 101
Strike5.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 103
Puts · V 95 · OI 424
Strike6.00
Calls · V 52 · OI 259
Puts · V 622 · OI 425
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV1.36
Put-call0.65
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV1.16
Put-call6.27
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.93
Put-call24.66
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.90
Put-call96.43
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.88
Put-call2.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.27
Put IV1.42
Skew0.15
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.06
Put IV1.22
Skew0.17
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.98
Put IV0.89
Skew-0.09
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.94
Put IV0.91
Skew-0.03
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.92
Put IV0.88
Skew-0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLUMN260821P00005500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.50
Volume7052
OI409
IV0.89
ContractLUMN260918C00007000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike7.00
Volume3300
OI11368
IV0.83
ContractLUMN260828P00006000
SidePut
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume2021
OI328
IV0.87
ContractLUMN260807P00006000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.00
Volume622
OI425
IV1.30
ContractLUMN260807C00007000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike7.00
Volume575
OI809
IV1.29
ContractLUMN260807C00006500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume524
OI399
IV1.31
ContractLUMN260807C00007500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume357
OI529
IV1.27
ContractLUMN260807P00006500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike6.50
Volume285
OI292
IV1.32
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.