Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MOS options intelligence
The Mosaic Company options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 07:48 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MOS currently carries bullish options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
7.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.62
Call-side skew
Trend fit
39
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.8%
RS -22.7
Expected move
7.3%
Put-call volume
0.62
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.65
Max pain
22.50
Underlying
22.30
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
632
Research Brief
MOS has a bullish chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 20.67–23.93; The largest call open-interest concentration is 24.00; the largest put concentration is 21.00. The most active strike by current volume is 22.50.
Priced range20.67–23.93
Call concentration24.00
Put concentration21.00
Max pain reference22.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 20.67 to 23.93. Max pain at 22.50 sits inside that range, 0.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
20.6722.30 ± 1.6323.93
Confirmation level
A close beyond 23.93 or below 20.67 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 28/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure28 × 42%
+11.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement39 × 26%
+10.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility74 × 10%
+7.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 24.00; the largest put concentration is 21.00. The most active strike by current volume is 22.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
53
18.00-19.3%
1
43
19.00-14.8%
0
555
20.00-10.3%
1
181
20.50-8.1%
0
628
21.00-5.8%
29
421
21.50-3.6%
1
149
22.00-1.3%
209
316
22.500.9%
211
210
23.003.1%
1033
0
23.505.4%
448
45
24.007.6%
1115
0
24.509.9%
136
3
25.0012.1%
944
0
25.5014.3%
79
2
26.0016.6%
752
0
26.5018.8%
281
1
27.0021.1%
244
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.65
7 Aug
7d
0.58
14 Aug
14d
0.52
21 Aug
21d
0.51
28 Aug
28d
0.50
4 Sep
35d
0.50
11 Sep
42d
0.49
18 Sep
49d
0.48
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
18
19
19
20
20
21
21
22
22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 632 / 632
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $514102 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+28
1W price-0.8%
Call premium61%
Put premium39%
Notional split
C 61% / P 39%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
39/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 65 contracts traded, $65475 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$65475
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 795 contracts traded, $56838 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$56838
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 346 contracts traded, $47575 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$47575
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1206 contracts traded, $42614 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$42614
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 282 contracts traded, $28902 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$28902
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close22.12
1W-0.8%
RS-22.7
Fair value-21.1%
Options pressure28
Speculation40
Volatility74
Trend fit39
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:32
Bullish
Pressure 65
Move 3.5%
30 Jul 10:30
Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 3.4%
30 Jul 22:16
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 2.6%
31 Jul 11:39
Bullish
Pressure 48
Move 2.6%
31 Jul 23:42
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 1.9%
1 Aug 04:33
Mixed
Pressure 18
Move 7.3%
1 Aug 06:48
Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 7.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike12.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike14.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike17.00
Calls · V 16 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 53
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.65
Put-call0.96
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.82
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.68
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.47
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.50
Put-call3.00
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.65
Skew-0.02
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.56
Skew-
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.53
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.51
Skew-0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.49
Skew-0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMOS260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume914
OI7294
IV0.55
ContractMOS260821P00021500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike21.50
Volume673
OI88
IV0.53
ContractMOS260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume390
OI8034
IV0.46
ContractMOS260918C00022500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume346
OI2046
IV0.46
ContractMOS260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume177
OI227
IV0.53
ContractMOS260807C00022000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume145
OI209
IV0.64
ContractMOS260807C00024000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike24.00
Volume141
OI1115
IV0.64
ContractMOS260821P00022000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.00
Volume135
OI2359
IV0.52
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.