Ticker Options Intelligence

CSWC options intelligence

Capital Southwest Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 59 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 08:34 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

CSWC currently carries bearish options pressure with a 59/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.07.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 6.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.07

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 40.84

Put-side skew

Trend fit 14

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.6%

RS 0.5

Expected move 6.5%
Put-call volume 40.84
Volume / OI 0.07
Reference IV 0.45
Max pain 22.50
Underlying 23.45
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 62

Research Brief

CSWC has a bearish chain read with 59/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 21.93–24.97; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.

Priced range21.93–24.97
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration22.50
Max pain reference22.50
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 21.93 to 24.97. Max pain at 22.50 sits inside that range, 4.1% below spot.

Spot Max pain
21.9323.45 ± 1.5224.97
Confirmation level

A close beyond 24.97 or below 21.93 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 59/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 95/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure95 × 42%
+40.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement14 × 26%
+3.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility57 × 10%
+5.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score58.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 22.50. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
12.50-46.7%
0
0
15.00-36.0%
0
2
17.50-25.4%
0
30
20.00-14.7%
20
2334
22.50-4.1%
163
21
25.006.6%
1587
0
30.0027.9%
26
0
35.0049.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.69× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.45 21 Aug 21d
0.34 18 Sep 49d
0.21 18 Dec 140d
0.17 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

20
23
25
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
62 / 62
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

75/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $566840 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-95
1W price+0.6%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split C 0% / P 100% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.07 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 14/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 736 contracts traded, $562040 estimated gross traded notional, and 99% of visible notional.
$562040
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $1870 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1870
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 10 contracts traded, $1500 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$1500
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 24 contracts traded, $972 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$972
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $142 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$142

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close23.59
1W+0.6%
RS0.5
Fair value+20.1%
Options pressure-95
Speculation42
Volatility57
Trend fit14

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.45 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 40.84 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.07 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:07 Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 7.1%
30 Jul 10:55 Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 6.2%
31 Jul 11:55 Bearish
Pressure -67
Move 6.9%
1 Aug 07:34 Bearish
Pressure -95
Move 6.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 30
Strike22.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 163
Puts · V 3 · OI 2334
Strike25.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 1587
Puts · V 10 · OI 21
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.45
Put-call2.17
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV0.34
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.21
Put-call2.88
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts16
Avg IV0.17
Put-call147.40

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.28
Skew0.07
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.29
Skew0.11
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.29
Skew0.15
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.30
Skew0.17

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCSWC270319P00030000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike30.00
Volume734
OI54
IV0.50
ContractCSWC261218P00020000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike20.00
Volume11
OI1130
IV0.33
ContractCSWC261218P00017500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike17.50
Volume10
OI85
IV0.38
ContractCSWC260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume10
OI21
IV0.25
ContractCSWC261218C00022500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike22.50
Volume6
OI505
IV0.14
ContractCSWC260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume5
OI1587
IV0.21
ContractCSWC270319C00022500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike22.50
Volume5
OI-
IV0.08
ContractCSWC260821P00022500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume3
OI2334
IV0.28