Ticker Options Intelligence

PRG options intelligence

PROG Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 00:52 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

PRG currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 10.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.11

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.43

Call-side skew

Trend fit 51

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +0.7%

RS 20.9

Expected move 10.2%
Put-call volume 0.43
Volume / OI 0.11
Reference IV 0.71
Max pain 40.00
Underlying 43.71
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 50

Research Brief

PRG has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 39.24–48.18; The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00.

Priced range39.24–48.18
Call concentration40.00
Put concentration35.00
Max pain reference40.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 39.24 to 48.18. Max pain at 40.00 sits inside that range, 8.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
39.2443.71 ± 4.4748.18
Confirmation level

A close beyond 48.18 or below 39.24 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 50/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure50 × 42%
+20.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation42 × 22%
+9.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement51 × 26%
+13.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility90 × 10%
+9.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score52.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 35.00. The most active strike by current volume is 40.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
20.00-54.2%
2
2
30.00-31.4%
0
50
35.00-19.9%
1
4
40.00-8.5%
790
2
45.003.0%
447
0
50.0014.4%
3
0
55.0025.8%
8
0
60.0037.3%
13
0
65.0048.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.02× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.71 21 Aug 21d
1.08 18 Sep 49d
0.47 16 Oct 77d
0.64 18 Dec 140d
0.70 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

35
40
45
50
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
50 / 50
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Volatility expansion bet

92/100
Primary intent Volatility expansion bet

The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $93327 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+50
1W price+0.7%
Call premium96%
Put premium4%
Notional split C 96% / P 4% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.11 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 51/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 45 contracts traded, $56310 estimated gross traded notional, and 60% of visible notional.
$56310
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 53 contracts traded, $25220 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$25220
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $4152 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$4152
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $2150 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$2150
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 21 contracts traded, $1575 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$1575

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close44.02
1W+0.7%
RS20.9
Fair value+30.3%
Options pressure50
Speculation42
Volatility90
Trend fit51

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.2% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.71 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.43 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.11 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:06 Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 13.9%
30 Jul 10:54 Bullish
Pressure 35
Move 12.6%
31 Jul 10:36 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.6%
31 Jul 17:03 Volatility
Pressure 49
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 19:19 Volatility
Pressure 49
Move 11.2%
31 Jul 23:52 Volatility
Pressure 50
Move 10.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike35.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 21 · OI 50
Strike40.00
Calls · V 51 · OI 790
Puts · V 2 · OI 4
Strike45.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 447
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike50.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV0.71
Put-call0.41
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts1
Avg IV1.08
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.47
Put-call1.00
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.27
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.70
Put-call1.40

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.55
Skew0.00
18 Sep 2026Incomplete skew
Call IV-
Put IV1.08
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.64
Skew0.06
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.56
Skew-0.05
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.68
Put IV0.64
Skew-0.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPRG261218P00015000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI15
IV1.48
ContractPRG270115C00040000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.56
ContractPRG270115C00030000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI7
IV0.76
ContractPRG260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI2
IV3.10
ContractPRG261218C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.55
ContractPRG261218C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.61
ContractPRG270115C00017500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI1
IV1.35
ContractPRG261218P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.97