Ticker Options Intelligence

NKTR options intelligence

Nektar Therapeutics options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 02:49 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

NKTR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.3%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.55

Call-side skew

Trend fit 59

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.6%

RS 12.5

Expected move 12.3%
Put-call volume 0.55
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.67
Max pain 65.00
Underlying 70.73
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 396

Research Brief

NKTR has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 62.02–79.43; The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00.

Priced range62.02–79.43
Call concentration85.00
Put concentration60.00
Max pain reference65.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 62.02 to 79.43. Max pain at 65.00 sits inside that range, 8.1% below spot.

Spot Max pain
62.0270.73 ± 8.7079.43
Confirmation level

A close beyond 79.43 or below 62.02 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 37/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure37 × 42%
+15.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation35 × 22%
+7.7

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement59 × 26%
+15.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility87 × 10%
+8.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 60.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
23
40.00-43.4%
202
466
50.00-29.3%
83
157
55.00-22.2%
14
2063
60.00-15.2%
337
1945
65.00-8.1%
84
363
70.00-1.0%
827
44
75.006.0%
596
82
80.0013.1%
1724
18
85.0020.2%
2028
43
90.0027.3%
977
8
95.0034.3%
262
1
100.0041.4%
762
0
105.0048.5%
326
0
110.0055.5%
620
0
120.0069.7%
446
0
125.0076.7%
212
0
160.00126.2%
1016
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.87× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.67 21 Aug 21d
0.70 18 Sep 49d
0.77 20 Nov 112d
0.75 15 Jan 168d
0.80 19 Feb 203d
0.83 19 Mar 231d
0.82 16 Apr 259d
0.76 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

60
65
70
75
80
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
396 / 396
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

86/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $130575 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+37
1W price+3.6%
Call premium90%
Put premium10%
Notional split C 90% / P 10% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 59/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · OTM
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 34 contracts traded, $47105 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$47105
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 59 contracts traded, $21045 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$21045
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $15000 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$15000
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $14875 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$14875
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 72 contracts traded, $13625 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$13625

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close70.73
1W+3.6%
RS12.5
Fair value+144.5%
Options pressure37
Speculation35
Volatility87
Trend fit59

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.67 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.55 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:59 Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 13.8%
30 Jul 10:48 Volatility
Pressure 65
Move 12.2%
31 Jul 10:33 Volatility
Pressure 72
Move 13.4%
1 Aug 01:49 Volatility
Pressure 37
Move 12.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 55
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike37.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike38.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 202
Puts · V 0 · OI 23

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.67
Put-call8.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.70
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.77
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts68
Avg IV0.75
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts32
Avg IV0.80
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.04
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.62
Skew-0.09
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.79
Skew0.04
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.72
Put IV0.74
Skew0.02
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.81
Skew0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractNKTR260821P00065000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume65
OI1945
IV0.66
ContractNKTR260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume21
OI41
IV0.71
ContractNKTR260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume15
OI51
IV0.71
ContractNKTR260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume15
OI15
IV0.76
ContractNKTR260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume13
OI3
IV0.67
ContractNKTR280121C00110000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike110.00
Volume11
OI95
IV0.74
ContractNKTR270115C00070000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike70.00
Volume10
OI664
IV0.76
ContractNKTR270416C00080000
SideCall
Expiry16 Apr 2027
Strike80.00
Volume10
OI20
IV0.81