Ticker Options Intelligence

CDLX options intelligence

Cardlytics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 22:03 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CDLX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 69.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.11.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 69.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.11

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 2.33

Put-side skew

Trend fit 79

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +3.3%

RS -68.9

Expected move 69.0%
Put-call volume 2.33
Volume / OI 0.11
Reference IV 2.90
Max pain 1.00
Underlying 3.74
Nearest expiry 16 Oct 2026
Contracts 56

Research Brief

CDLX has a volatility chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1.16–6.32; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1.00; the largest put concentration is 1.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00.

Priced range1.16–6.32
Call concentration1.00
Put concentration1.00
Max pain reference1.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 16 Oct

Options imply 1.16 to 6.32. Max pain at 1.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
1.163.74 ± 2.586.32
Confirmation level

A close beyond 6.32 or below 1.16 at the 16 Oct expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 33/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure33 × 42%
+13.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation16 × 22%
+3.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement79 × 26%
+20.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score47.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 1.00; the largest put concentration is 1.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
0.50-86.6%
0
1220
1.00-73.3%
291
0
1.50-59.9%
114
40
2.00-46.5%
0
10
3.00-19.8%
7
0
5.0033.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

2.29× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

2.90 16 Oct 77d
2.00 18 Dec 140d
1.21 15 Jan 168d
0.41 17 Dec 504d
1.27 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

3
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 16 Oct 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
56 / 56
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $107918 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-33
1W price+3.3%
Call premium15%
Put premium85%
Notional split C 15% / P 85% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.11 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 79/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 1005 contracts traded, $44198 estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$44198
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 70 contracts traded, $40150 estimated gross traded notional, and 37% of visible notional.
$40150
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 155 contracts traded, $8154 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$8154
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 70 contracts traded, $6982 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$6982
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 311 contracts traded, $6179 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$6179

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close3.74
1W+3.3%
RS-68.9
Fair value-92.2%
Options pressure-33
Speculation16
Volatility96
Trend fit79

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 69.0% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 2.90 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 2.33 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.11 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:49 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 71.3%
30 Jul 14:52 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 71.3%
30 Jul 15:12 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 71.3%
30 Jul 17:48 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 71.3%
30 Jul 19:36 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 71.3%
31 Jul 05:31 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 71.3%
1 Aug 21:03 Volatility
Pressure -33
Move 69.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2
Strike1.00
Calls · V 19 · OI 291
Puts · V 1004 · OI 1220
Strike1.50
Calls · V 7 · OI 114
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 40
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV2.90
Put-call38.65
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts12
Avg IV2.00
Put-call0.03
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts11
Avg IV1.21
Put-call0.16
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Contracts11
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.32
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts13
Avg IV1.27
Put-call4.47

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.10
Put IV6.05
Skew4.96
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.44
Put IV4.89
Skew4.45
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.60
Put IV3.74
Skew3.14
17 Dec 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.25
Skew0.23
21 Jan 2028Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV2.27
Skew2.05

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCDLX261218P00004000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI116
IV4.08
ContractCDLX261016P00002000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI40
IV5.41
ContractCDLX280121P00001500
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike1.50
Volume-
OI14
IV2.07
ContractCDLX261016P00003000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI10
IV6.05
ContractCDLX261016C00003000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike3.00
Volume-
OI7
IV1.00
ContractCDLX261016C00005000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI1
IV1.10
ContractCDLX270115C00004000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike4.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.60
ContractCDLX261016C00002000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00