Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
PAG options intelligence
Penske Automotive Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
38
Market data through 29 Jul 2026
Checked 30 Jul 2026 09:41 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
PAG currently carries mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
4.5%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.12
Balanced tape
Trend fit
99
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
+7.2%
RS 21.0
Expected move
4.5%
Put-call volume
1.13
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.16
Max pain
185.00
Underlying
217.35
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
234
Research Brief
PAG has a mixed chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 207.67–227.03; The largest call open-interest concentration is 185.00; the largest put concentration is 200.00. The most active strike by current volume is 230.00.
Priced range207.67–227.03
Call concentration185.00
Put concentration200.00
Max pain reference185.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 207.67 to 227.03. Max pain at 185.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
207.67217.35 ± 9.68227.03
Confirmation level
A close beyond 227.03 or below 207.67 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 38/100
Pressure is 1/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure1 × 42%
+0.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation40 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement99 × 26%
+25.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility29 × 10%
+2.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 185.00; the largest put concentration is 200.00. The most active strike by current volume is 230.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
8
80.00-63.2%
0
7
110.00-49.4%
0
35
115.00-47.1%
0
9
120.00-44.8%
0
31
130.00-40.2%
0
36
150.00-31.0%
1
11
155.00-28.7%
4
0
170.00-21.8%
15
1
175.00-19.5%
20
14
180.00-17.2%
24
1
185.00-14.9%
412
3
190.00-12.6%
71
3
195.00-10.3%
11
57
200.00-8.0%
20
11
210.00-3.4%
71
1
220.001.2%
285
1
230.005.8%
48
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.16
21 Aug
22d
0.16
18 Sep
50d
0.23
20 Nov
113d
0.20
19 Feb
204d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
175
180
185
190
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 29 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v1.x legacy
- Contracts
- 234 / 234
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $15330 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+1
1W price+7.2%
Call premium57%
Put premium43%
Notional split
C 57% / P 43%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
99/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $3060 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$3060
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $2990 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$2990
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $2365 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$2365
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 7 contracts traded, $2328 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$2328
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $1788 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$1788
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 1 completed session
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close217.35
1W+7.2%
RS21.0
Fair value+40.3%
Options pressure1
Speculation40
Volatility29
Trend fit99
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:26
Bullish
Pressure 82
Move 4.7%
30 Jul 08:41
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 4.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 8
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 35
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.16
Put-call0.79
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.16
Put-call5.00
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts66
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts62
Avg IV0.20
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.17
Put IV0.10
Skew-0.07
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.23
Skew0.07
20 Nov 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.15
Put IV0.26
Skew0.11
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.14
Put IV0.23
Skew0.09
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractPAG260821C00230000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume11
OI48
IV0.17
ContractPAG260821P00220000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume7
OI1
IV0.23
ContractPAG260821P00150000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume4
OI36
IV0.53
ContractPAG260918P00230000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike230.00
Volume3
OI1
IV0.21
ContractPAG260821C00220000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike220.00
Volume2
OI285
IV0.18
ContractPAG260918P00220000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike220.00
Volume2
OI3
IV0.22
ContractPAG260821C00200000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike200.00
Volume1
OI20
IV0.01
ContractPAG270219C00200000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike200.00
Volume1
OI17
IV0.18
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.