Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
LMND options intelligence
Lemonade Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 14:15 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
LMND currently carries bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 19.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
19.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.59
Call-side skew
Trend fit
29
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-19.7%
RS -29.5
Expected move
19.3%
Put-call volume
0.59
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.33
Max pain
55.00
Underlying
60.14
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
944
Research Brief
LMND has a bullish chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 48.51–71.77; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00.
Priced range48.51–71.77
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration45.00
Max pain reference55.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 48.51 to 71.77. Max pain at 55.00 sits inside that range, 8.5% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
48.5160.14 ± 11.6371.77
Confirmation level
A close beyond 71.77 or below 48.51 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 30/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure30 × 42%
+12.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement29 × 26%
+7.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 45.00. The most active strike by current volume is 55.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
77
44.00-26.8%
0
2047
45.00-25.2%
4
72
48.00-20.2%
31
95
50.00-16.9%
41
275
52.00-13.5%
27
1383
55.00-8.5%
316
80
56.00-6.9%
373
120
58.00-3.6%
23
30
60.00-0.2%
102
62
65.008.1%
30
1
69.0014.7%
317
0
70.0016.4%
134
0
71.0018.1%
168
0
75.0024.7%
2200
0
80.0033.0%
90
0
81.0034.7%
93
0
85.0041.3%
101
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.33
7 Aug
7d
0.44
14 Aug
14d
0.45
21 Aug
21d
0.64
28 Aug
28d
0.66
4 Sep
35d
0.68
11 Sep
42d
0.70
18 Sep
49d
0.77
18 Dec
140d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
49
49
50
51
52
53
55
56
57
58
59
61
62
63
65
66
67
68
69
71
72
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 944 / 944
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+30
1W price-19.7%
Call premium50%
Put premium50%
Notional split
C 50% / P 50%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
29/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 501 contracts traded, $252315 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$252315
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
puts cluster with 349 contracts traded, $220552 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$220552
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 181 contracts traded, $102208 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$102208
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 437 contracts traded, $96288 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$96288
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 573 contracts traded, $95059 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$95059
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close48.31
1W-19.7%
RS-29.5
Fair value+30.8%
Options pressure30
Speculation41
Volatility63
Trend fit29
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:42
Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 13.3%
30 Jul 10:39
Bullish
Pressure 18
Move 20.5%
31 Jul 10:24
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 18.4%
1 Aug 13:15
Bullish
Pressure 30
Move 19.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 59
Strike36.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike37.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike38.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike38.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts140
Avg IV0.33
Put-call0.65
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts142
Avg IV0.44
Put-call0.87
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.45
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.64
Put-call0.41
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.66
Put-call0.28
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.01
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.90
Put IV0.62
Skew-0.28
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.76
Put IV0.68
Skew-0.08
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.95
Put IV0.67
Skew-0.28
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.96
Put IV0.67
Skew-0.29
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractLMND260918C00065000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume216
OI934
IV0.72
ContractLMND260821C00055000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume216
OI163
IV0.70
ContractLMND260918P00055000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume196
OI1795
IV0.69
ContractLMND260807C00055000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike55.00
Volume182
OI316
IV0.73
ContractLMND260814P00048000
SidePut
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike48.00
Volume122
OI2
IV0.73
ContractLMND260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume117
OI609
IV0.69
ContractLMND270115C00120000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike120.00
Volume114
OI1152
IV0.84
ContractLMND280121C00120000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike120.00
Volume113
OI1604
IV0.81
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.