Ticker Options Intelligence

MTB options intelligence

M&T Bank Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 33 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 05:06 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MTB currently carries bullish options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 4.3%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.76

Balanced tape

Trend fit 74

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -1.3%

RS 9.3

Expected move 4.3%
Put-call volume 0.76
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.24
Max pain 240.00
Underlying 246.29
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 606

Research Brief

MTB has a bullish chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 235.69–256.89; The largest call open-interest concentration is 270.00; the largest put concentration is 230.00. The most active strike by current volume is 230.00.

Priced range235.69–256.89
Call concentration270.00
Put concentration230.00
Max pain reference240.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 235.69 to 256.89. Max pain at 240.00 sits inside that range, 2.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
235.69246.29 ± 10.60256.89
Confirmation level

A close beyond 256.89 or below 235.69 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 33/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 21/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure21 × 42%
+8.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation7 × 22%
+1.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement74 × 26%
+19.2

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score32.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 270.00; the largest put concentration is 230.00. The most active strike by current volume is 230.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
145.00-41.1%
0
0
150.00-39.1%
0
0
155.00-37.1%
0
0
160.00-35.0%
0
0
165.00-33.0%
0
0
170.00-31.0%
0
9
190.00-22.9%
0
6
195.00-20.8%
0
2
200.00-18.8%
0
16
210.00-14.7%
0
39
220.00-10.7%
5
55
230.00-6.6%
23
49
240.00-2.6%
89
53
250.001.5%
160
34
260.005.6%
312
0
270.009.6%
524
0
280.0013.7%
49
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.89× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.24 21 Aug 21d
0.23 18 Sep 49d
0.25 16 Oct 77d
0.25 18 Dec 140d
0.24 15 Jan 168d
0.25 19 Feb 203d
0.25 19 Mar 231d
0.26 17 Jun 321d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
606 / 606
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

64/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9254 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+21
1W price-1.3%
Call premium47%
Put premium53%
Notional split C 47% / P 53% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 74/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 4 contracts traded, $3340 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$3340
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $2125 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$2125
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $2037 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$2037
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 12 contracts traded, $1540 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$1540
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $212 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$212

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close246.29
1W-1.3%
RS9.3
Fair value+43.9%
Options pressure21
Speculation7
Volatility34
Trend fit74

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 4.3% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.24 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.76 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:13 Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 4.8%
30 Jul 10:10 Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 4.6%
30 Jul 17:37 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 18:36 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 20:15 Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 4.6%
31 Jul 01:49 Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 4.6%
1 Aug 10:54 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 4.2%
2 Aug 04:06 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 4.3%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts52
Avg IV0.24
Put-call1.20
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.23
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.67
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts58
Avg IV0.24
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.23
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.25
Skew0.05
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.28
Skew0.07
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.28
Skew0.08
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.29
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMTB260821P00230000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike230.00
Volume10
OI55
IV0.26
ContractMTB260821C00270000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike270.00
Volume5
OI524
IV0.25
ContractMTB260821C00250000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike250.00
Volume5
OI160
IV0.24
ContractMTB261016C00270000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike270.00
Volume5
OI70
IV0.21
ContractMTB260918C00280000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike280.00
Volume4
OI8
IV0.12
ContractMTB261016P00240000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike240.00
Volume4
OI5
IV0.27
ContractMTB260821P00240000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike240.00
Volume2
OI49
IV0.23
ContractMTB260918C00270000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike270.00
Volume1
OI865
IV0.20