Ticker Options Intelligence

RWT options intelligence

Redwood Trust Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 43 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 17:14 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

RWT currently carries bullish options pressure with a 43/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 12.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.00

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.06

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -7.1%

RS -21.6

Expected move 12.4%
Put-call volume 0.06
Volume / OI 0.00
Reference IV 0.67
Max pain 5.00
Underlying 4.57
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 86

Research Brief

RWT has a bullish chain read with 43/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 4.01–5.13; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 6.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00.

Priced range4.01–5.13
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration6.00
Max pain reference5.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 4.01 to 5.13. Max pain at 5.00 sits inside that range, 9.4% above spot.

Spot Max pain
4.014.57 ± 0.565.13
Confirmation level

A close beyond 5.13 or below 4.01 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 43/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 77/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure77 × 42%
+32.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation8 × 22%
+1.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility87 × 10%
+8.7

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score42.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 6.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
1.00-78.1%
19
0
2.00-56.2%
13
0
3.00-34.4%
9
11
4.00-12.5%
77
335
5.009.4%
370
412
6.0031.3%
21
0
7.0053.2%
1
1
8.0075.1%
0
5
9.0096.9%
0
1
10.00118.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.51× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.67 21 Aug 21d
0.46 18 Sep 49d
0.51 16 Oct 77d
0.44 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

4
5
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
86 / 86
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Call activity against legacy put OI

60/100
Primary intent Call activity against legacy put OI

Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $8193 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+77
1W price-7.1%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split C 99% / P 1% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.00 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 21 contracts traded, $6180 estimated gross traded notional, and 75% of visible notional.
$6180
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $1915 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$1915
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $48 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$48
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $26 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$26
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $18 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$18

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close4.57
1W-7.1%
RS-21.6
Fair value-15.5%
Options pressure77
Speculation8
Volatility87
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.67 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.06 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:20 Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 11.7%
30 Jul 11:04 Bullish
Pressure 83
Move 10.7%
31 Jul 10:43 Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 8.1%
1 Aug 16:14 Bullish
Pressure 77
Move 12.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 19
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike2.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 13
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike3.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 9
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike4.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 77
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 370
Puts · V 1 · OI 335
Strike6.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 412
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.25
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.46
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.51
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.37
Skew0.11
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.16
Put IV0.24
Skew0.08
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.68
Skew0.55
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.59
Skew0.34

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractRWT260918C00002000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike2.00
Volume8
OI8
IV1.27
ContractRWT260918C00001000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike1.00
Volume7
OI22
IV0.01
ContractRWT260821C00001000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.00
Volume3
OI19
IV3.62
ContractRWT261016C00002000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike2.00
Volume3
OI12
IV1.60
ContractRWT260821C00002000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.00
Volume2
OI13
IV0.01
ContractRWT260821C00003000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike3.00
Volume2
OI9
IV1.28
ContractRWT261016C00001000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike1.00
Volume2
OI6
IV1.82
ContractRWT260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume1
OI335
IV0.41