Ticker Options Intelligence

EXLS options intelligence

ExlService Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 66 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 08:18 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

EXLS currently carries volatility options pressure with a 66/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 17.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 6.73

Put-side skew

Trend fit 50

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +22.6%

RS -14.2

Expected move 17.5%
Put-call volume 6.73
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 0.62
Max pain 25.00
Underlying 27.67
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 72

Research Brief

EXLS has a volatility chain read with 66/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 22.82–32.52; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.

Priced range22.82–32.52
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration25.00
Max pain reference25.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 22.82 to 32.52. Max pain at 25.00 sits inside that range, 9.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
22.8227.67 ± 4.8532.52
Confirmation level

A close beyond 32.52 or below 22.82 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 66/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 86/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure86 × 42%
+36.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+8.9

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement50 × 26%
+13.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score66.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 25.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
15.00-45.8%
0
0
17.50-36.8%
0
5098
20.00-27.7%
0
45
22.50-18.7%
1
5170
25.00-9.6%
66
27
30.008.4%
1597
16
35.0026.5%
90
1
40.0044.6%
847
0
45.0062.6%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.32× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.62 21 Aug 21d
0.50 18 Sep 49d
0.44 16 Oct 77d
0.47 15 Jan 168d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

23
25
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
72 / 72
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

85/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $110143 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-86
1W price+22.6%
Call premium6%
Put premium94%
Notional split C 6% / P 94% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 50/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 297 contracts traded, $102855 estimated gross traded notional, and 93% of visible notional.
$102855
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 14 contracts traded, $3890 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$3890
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 31 contracts traded, $2963 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$2963
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $360 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$360
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $75 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$75

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close33.93
1W+22.6%
RS-14.2
Fair value-7.2%
Options pressure-86
Speculation41
Volatility84
Trend fit50

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 17.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.62 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 6.73 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:42 Bullish
Pressure 20
Move 13.8%
30 Jul 13:14 Bullish
Pressure 81
Move 23.8%
31 Jul 05:19 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 19.1%
31 Jul 15:55 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 17.6%
31 Jul 22:33 Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 17.5%
1 Aug 07:18 Volatility
Pressure -86
Move 17.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5098
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 45
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 66
Puts · V 0 · OI 5170
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1597
Puts · V 4 · OI 27
Strike35.00
Calls · V 24 · OI 90
Puts · V 1 · OI 16
Strike40.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 847
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.16
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.50
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.47
Put-call21.21

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.53
Skew0.08
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.58
Skew0.24
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.43
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.16
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.42
Put IV0.64
Skew0.21

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractEXLS270115P00035000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume200
OI-
IV0.41
ContractEXLS270115P00030000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike30.00
Volume97
OI3
IV0.46
ContractEXLS260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume24
OI90
IV0.07
ContractEXLS270115C00035000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike35.00
Volume8
OI429
IV0.47
ContractEXLS260821C00040000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike40.00
Volume6
OI847
IV0.45
ContractEXLS270115C00045000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.00
Volume6
OI85
IV0.42
ContractEXLS260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume4
OI27
IV0.58
ContractEXLS260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume1
OI1597
IV0.56