Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AAPL options intelligence
Apple Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:59 · partial chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
AAPL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.55.
Expected move
2.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.55
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.56
Call-side skew
Trend fit
62
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-7.2%
RS 5.0
Expected move
2.1%
Put-call volume
0.56
Volume / OI
0.55
Reference IV
0.29
Max pain
332.50
Underlying
308.91
Nearest expiry
3 Aug 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
AAPL has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 302.52–315.30; The largest call open-interest concentration is 335.00; the largest put concentration is 332.50. The most active strike by current volume is 305.00.
Priced range302.52–315.30
Call concentration335.00
Put concentration332.50
Max pain reference332.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 302.52 to 315.30. Max pain at 332.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
302.52308.91 ± 6.39315.30
Confirmation level
A close beyond 315.30 or below 302.52 at the 3 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 31/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure31 × 42%
+13.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation53 × 22%
+11.6
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement62 × 26%
+16.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility28 × 10%
+2.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 335.00; the largest put concentration is 332.50. The most active strike by current volume is 305.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
160
290.00-6.1%
12
177
292.50-5.3%
5
646
295.00-4.5%
34
161
297.50-3.7%
21
1654
300.00-2.9%
38
212
302.50-2.1%
118
677
305.00-1.3%
115
410
307.50-0.5%
129
1985
310.000.4%
186
686
312.501.2%
16
1324
315.002.0%
233
349
317.502.8%
421
2027
320.003.6%
151
823
322.504.4%
192
1761
325.005.2%
415
1306
330.006.8%
776
520
335.008.4%
2765
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$228.5MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak350.00+$60.7M
Negative peak300.00-$52.9M
Nearest balance308.22Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
285.00-7.7%
-$6.5M
287.50-6.9%
-$126,470
290.00-6.1%
-$4.2M
292.50-5.3%
-$698,029
295.00-4.5%
-$7.4M
297.50-3.7%
-$1.8M
300.00-2.9%
-$52.9M
302.50-2.1%
-$768,179
305.00-1.3%
+$12.7M
307.50-0.5%
-$12.3M
310.000.4%
+$30.0M
312.501.2%
-$6.4M
315.002.0%
-$28.8M
317.502.8%
-$2.1M
320.003.6%
+$39.8M
322.504.4%
-$2.0M
325.005.2%
+$22.5M
327.506.0%
-$6.6M
330.006.8%
+$38.2M
332.507.6%
+$1.6M
335.008.4%
+$26.1M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.29
3 Aug
3d
0.32
5 Aug
5d
0.32
7 Aug
7d
0.29
10 Aug
10d
0.28
12 Aug
12d
0.28
14 Aug
14d
0.27
21 Aug
21d
0.27
28 Aug
28d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
250
260
270
278
285
290
295
300
305
310
318
323
328
333
338
343
348
355
360
365
370
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
1 stored transitions are available, but none had a directional bullish or bearish label.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing0%
Average expiry move7.2%
30 Jul
Mixed · 44
-7.2% through expiry
3.8% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Good
Retained chain57%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 3490
- 57% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Short-dated OTM call concentration
Call activity is concentrated in upside and shorter-dated contracts; trade direction remains unconfirmed without aggressor data.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Short-dated OTM call concentration matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $860.3M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · atm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+31
1W price-7.2%
Call premium63%
Put premium37%
Notional split
C 63% / P 37%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.55
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
62/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 239804 contracts traded, $122.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$122.5M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 19906 contracts traded, $77.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$77.6M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 37446 contracts traded, $69.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$69.8M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 35672 contracts traded, $53.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$53.2M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 122302 contracts traded, $47.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$47.1M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close308.91
1W-7.2%
RS5.0
Fair value+37.0%
Options pressure31
Speculation53
Volatility28
Trend fit62
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 15:32
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 2.4%
29 Jul 16:00
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 2.4%
29 Jul 16:16
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 2.6%
29 Jul 16:43
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 2.7%
29 Jul 17:02
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 2.5%
29 Jul 17:28
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 2.8%
29 Jul 17:51
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 3.1%
29 Jul 18:13
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 3.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike205.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Strike210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 0
Strike215.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike220.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 27
Strike225.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 0
Puts · V 9 · OI 0
Strike230.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 26 · OI 1
Strike235.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike240.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.57
Expiry5 Aug 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.45
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts160
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.70
Expiry10 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.19
Expiry12 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.28
Put-call0.27
Skew
Call/put IV balance
3 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.31
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.02
5 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.32
Skew-0.01
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.33
Skew-
10 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.31
Skew0.02
12 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.29
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAAPL260821C00340000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike340.00
Volume34134
OI21520
IV0.28
ContractAAPL260803C00305000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike305.00
Volume33680
OI115
IV0.30
ContractAAPL260803C00310000
SideCall
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike310.00
Volume28728
OI186
IV0.29
ContractAAPL260807C00310000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike310.00
Volume28485
OI1346
IV0.32
ContractAAPL261120C00400000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike400.00
Volume24897
OI47976
IV0.27
ContractAAPL260807C00320000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike320.00
Volume24469
OI2028
IV0.33
ContractAAPL260803P00300000
SidePut
Expiry3 Aug 2026
Strike300.00
Volume24456
OI1654
IV0.29
ContractAAPL260918C00320000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike320.00
Volume21629
OI23671
IV0.26
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.