Ticker Options Intelligence

ASPN options intelligence

Aspen Aerogels Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 38 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 12:01 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

ASPN currently carries mixed options pressure with a 38/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 24.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 24.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.42

Put-side skew

Trend fit 95

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.9%

RS -13.7

Expected move 24.6%
Put-call volume 1.42
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.36
Max pain 5.00
Underlying 4.67
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 86

Research Brief

ASPN has a mixed chain read with 38/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 3.52–5.82; The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range3.52–5.82
Call concentration5.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference5.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 3.52 to 5.82. Max pain at 5.00 sits inside that range, 7.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
3.524.67 ± 1.155.82
Confirmation level

A close beyond 5.82 or below 3.52 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 38/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 8/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure8 × 42%
+3.4

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation2 × 22%
+0.4

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement95 × 26%
+24.6

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 5.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
167
2.50-46.5%
49
449
5.007.1%
637
146
7.5060.6%
559
0
10.00114.1%
565
2
12.50167.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.19× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.36 21 Aug 22d
1.07 18 Sep 50d
0.97 20 Nov 113d
0.93 15 Jan 169d
0.96 19 Feb 204d
1.15 21 Jan 540d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

5
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
86 / 86
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

91/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $11579 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-8
1W price-0.9%
Call premium30%
Put premium70%
Notional split C 30% / P 70% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 95/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 101 contracts traded, $8080 estimated gross traded notional, and 70% of visible notional.
$8080
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $2508 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$2508
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $919 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$919
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $72 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$72

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close4.63
1W-0.9%
RS-13.7
Fair value-58.4%
Options pressure-8
Speculation2
Volatility96
Trend fit95

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 24.6% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.36 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.42 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:25 Volatility
Pressure 90
Move 27.3%
30 Jul 12:25 Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 27.8%
31 Jul 11:01 Mixed
Pressure -8
Move 24.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 49
Puts · V 0 · OI 167
Strike5.00
Calls · V 26 · OI 637
Puts · V 101 · OI 449
Strike7.50
Calls · V 3 · OI 559
Puts · V 0 · OI 146
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 565
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV1.36
Put-call3.48
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts8
Avg IV1.07
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.97
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.93
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV0.96
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.21
Put IV1.24
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.10
Put IV0.82
Skew-0.27
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.98
Put IV0.55
Skew-0.43
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.84
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.39
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.98
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.57

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractASPN260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume101
OI449
IV1.14
ContractASPN260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume26
OI637
IV1.21
ContractASPN270115C00010000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume13
OI1895
IV0.97
ContractASPN280121C00010000
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike10.00
Volume12
OI166
IV0.92
ContractASPN270115C00007500
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike7.50
Volume5
OI2159
IV0.84
ContractASPN270115C00005000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike5.00
Volume3
OI745
IV0.89
ContractASPN260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume3
OI559
IV1.00
ContractASPN261120C00007500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume2
OI309
IV0.98