Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
GOAU options intelligence
ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS US GLOBAL GO GOLD & PRECUS METL MINE ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
62
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 13:23 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
GOAU currently carries bearish options pressure with a 62/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.10.
Expected move
6.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.10
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
44
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.6%
RS -19.3
Expected move
6.3%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.10
Reference IV
0.29
Max pain
40.00
Underlying
36.37
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
126
Research Brief
GOAU has a bearish chain read with 62/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 34.07–38.67; The largest call open-interest concentration is 32.00; the largest put concentration is 36.00. The most active strike by current volume is 32.00.
Priced range34.07–38.67
Call concentration32.00
Put concentration36.00
Max pain reference40.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 34.07 to 38.67. Max pain at 40.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
34.0736.37 ± 2.3038.67
Confirmation level
A close beyond 38.67 or below 34.07 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 62/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation18 × 22%
+4.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement44 × 26%
+11.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility46 × 10%
+4.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 32.00; the largest put concentration is 36.00. The most active strike by current volume is 32.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
32.00-12.0%
0
0
33.00-9.3%
0
1
34.00-6.5%
0
0
35.00-3.8%
0
6
36.00-1.0%
0
0
37.001.7%
0
0
38.004.5%
0
0
39.007.2%
0
1
40.0010.0%
0
0
41.0012.7%
0
0
42.0015.5%
0
0
43.0018.2%
0
0
44.0021.0%
0
0
45.0023.7%
0
0
46.0026.5%
0
0
47.0029.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$180Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak43.00+$151
Negative peak36.00-$308
Nearest balance37.70Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
30.00-17.5%
+$0
34.00-6.5%
-$17
36.00-1.0%
-$308
38.004.5%
+$55
40.0010.0%
-$63
43.0018.2%
+$151
44.0021.0%
-$104
49.0034.7%
+$37
50.0037.5%
+$69
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.29
21 Aug
17d
0.29
18 Sep
45d
0.29
16 Oct
73d
0.41
15 Jan
164d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 126 / 126
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $205 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · atm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-100
1W price-1.6%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.10
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
44/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $205 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$205
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close36.37
1W-1.6%
RS-19.3
Fair value+34.1%
Options pressure-100
Speculation18
Volatility46
Trend fit44
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 0/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 0/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 0/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 12:28
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 12:05
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 9.5%
31 Jul 11:44
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 9.6%
3 Aug 10:42
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 6.2%
4 Aug 11:54
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 4.1%
5 Aug 12:23
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 6.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike32.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike36.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike37.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike38.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike39.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.29
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.41
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.17
Skew0.16
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.04
Put IV0.42
Skew0.38
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.11
Skew-0.62
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractGOAU260918P00036000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike36.00
Volume2
OI1
IV0.42
ContractGOAU260821P00036000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike36.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.17
ContractGOAU270115C00043000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike43.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.40
ContractGOAU261016P00044000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike44.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.55
ContractGOAU270115C00038000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike38.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.36
ContractGOAU270115C00050000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.51
ContractGOAU260821P00034000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike34.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.28
ContractGOAU261016C00049000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike49.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.71
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.