Ticker Options Intelligence

AGL options intelligence

agilon health Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 62 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:33 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

AGL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 62/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 26.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 26.9%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.29

Call-side skew

Trend fit 94

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -24.5%

RS 136.6

Expected move 26.9%
Put-call volume 0.29
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.36
Max pain 105.00
Underlying 98.00
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 508

Research Brief

AGL has a volatility chain read with 62/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 71.65–124.35; The largest call open-interest concentration is 155.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00.

Priced range71.65–124.35
Call concentration155.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference105.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 71.65 to 124.35. Max pain at 105.00 sits inside that range, 7.1% above spot.

Spot Max pain
71.6598.00 ± 26.35124.35
Confirmation level

A close beyond 124.35 or below 71.65 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 62/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 59/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure59 × 42%
+24.9

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement94 × 26%
+24.5

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score62.0Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 155.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 110.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
22
65.00-33.7%
1
35
70.00-28.6%
0
7
80.00-18.4%
1
140
85.00-13.3%
1
39
100.002.0%
8
109
105.007.1%
69
7
110.0012.2%
24
4
115.0017.3%
14
4
120.0022.4%
37
6
125.0027.6%
12
6
135.0037.8%
35
3
140.0042.9%
18
5
145.0048.0%
12
2
150.0053.1%
15
1
155.0058.2%
117
8
160.0063.3%
11
0
165.0068.4%
26
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.33× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.36 21 Aug 22d
1.17 18 Sep 50d
1.12 16 Oct 78d
1.08 15 Jan 169d
1.06 19 Mar 232d
1.03 17 Dec 505d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
508 / 508
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

95/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $62072 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+59
1W price-24.5%
Call premium88%
Put premium12%
Notional split C 88% / P 12% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 94/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 3 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 39 contracts traded, $28412 estimated gross traded notional, and 46% of visible notional.
$28412
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $15075 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$15075
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 13 contracts traded, $7295 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$7295
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $6700 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$6700
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $4480 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$4480

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close98.00
1W-24.5%
RS136.6
Fair value-21.5%
Options pressure59
Speculation14
Volatility96
Trend fit94

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 26.9% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.36 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.29 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:06 Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 28.3%
30 Jul 10:54 Volatility
Pressure 58
Move 26.7%
30 Jul 14:51 Volatility
Pressure 47
Move 27.1%
30 Jul 15:14 Volatility
Pressure 47
Move 26.8%
30 Jul 17:48 Volatility
Pressure 46
Move 27.0%
31 Jul 13:33 Volatility
Pressure 59
Move 26.9%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 35
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 1
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 11 · OI 7
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 140
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 6

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV1.36
Put-call0.27
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV1.17
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts144
Avg IV1.12
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts126
Avg IV1.08
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts64
Avg IV1.06
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.32
Put IV1.40
Skew0.08
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.12
Put IV1.19
Skew0.07
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.05
Put IV1.17
Skew0.12
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV1.04
Put IV1.10
Skew0.06
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV1.01
Put IV1.08
Skew0.07

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractAGL260821C00110000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume15
OI24
IV1.33
ContractAGL260821C00105000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume14
OI69
IV1.34
ContractAGL260821P00080000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume11
OI7
IV1.40
ContractAGL260821C00095000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume5
OI3
IV1.33
ContractAGL260821C00125000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike125.00
Volume4
OI12
IV1.32
ContractAGL260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume4
OI8
IV1.32
ContractAGL260821C00145000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike145.00
Volume3
OI12
IV1.29
ContractAGL271217C00080000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike80.00
Volume3
OI12
IV1.03