Ticker Options Intelligence

MDGL options intelligence

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 41 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:11 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

MDGL currently carries mixed options pressure with a 41/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.16.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 10.6%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.16

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.05

Balanced tape

Trend fit 88

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -14.2%

RS -12.5

Expected move 10.6%
Put-call volume 1.05
Volume / OI 0.16
Reference IV 0.44
Max pain 520.00
Underlying 544.51
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 738

Research Brief

MDGL has a mixed chain read with 41/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 486.61–602.41; The largest call open-interest concentration is 650.00; the largest put concentration is 510.00. The most active strike by current volume is 450.00.

Priced range486.61–602.41
Call concentration650.00
Put concentration510.00
Max pain reference520.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 486.61 to 602.41. Max pain at 520.00 sits inside that range, 4.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
486.61544.51 ± 57.90602.41
Confirmation level

A close beyond 602.41 or below 486.61 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 41/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 4/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure4 × 42%
+1.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation44 × 22%
+9.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement88 × 26%
+22.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility71 × 10%
+7.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score41.2Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 650.00; the largest put concentration is 510.00. The most active strike by current volume is 450.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
10
410.00-24.7%
20
53
420.00-22.9%
20
8
450.00-17.4%
0
8
460.00-15.5%
2
48
470.00-13.7%
2
8
480.00-11.8%
0
11
490.00-10.0%
1
10
500.00-8.2%
23
301
510.00-6.3%
0
62
520.00-4.5%
1
23
540.00-0.8%
14
3
550.001.0%
11
0
580.006.5%
34
0
600.0010.2%
57
0
620.0013.9%
60
2
650.0019.4%
146
1
700.0028.6%
15
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.79× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.44 21 Aug 22d
0.45 18 Sep 50d
0.46 16 Oct 78d
0.54 18 Dec 141d
0.52 15 Jan 169d
0.57 19 Mar 232d
0.56 17 Dec 505d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

440
450
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
640
650
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
738 / 738
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

81/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $9.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+4
1W price-14.2%
Call premium70%
Put premium30%
Notional split C 70% / P 30% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.16 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 88/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 433 contracts traded, $4.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 49% of visible notional.
$4.7M
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 47 contracts traded, $939915 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$939915
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 102 contracts traded, $808885 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$808885
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 658 contracts traded, $721894 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$721894
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 106 contracts traded, $672540 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$672540

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close467.32
1W-14.2%
RS-12.5
Fair value+39.9%
Options pressure4
Speculation44
Volatility71
Trend fit88

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 10.6% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.44 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.05 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.16 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:25 Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 12.4%
30 Jul 10:21 Volatility
Pressure -10
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 10:11 Mixed
Pressure 4
Move 10.6%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike320.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike330.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike340.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike350.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike360.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike370.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike380.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike390.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 1

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts100
Avg IV0.44
Put-call3.54
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts92
Avg IV0.45
Put-call0.97
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts106
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.68
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts124
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.55
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts108
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.02

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.45
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.46
Skew0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.48
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.52
Put IV0.57
Skew0.05
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.56
Skew0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMDGL260821P00450000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike450.00
Volume309
OI8
IV0.50
ContractMDGL260821P00480000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike480.00
Volume254
OI8
IV0.44
ContractMDGL270319C00500000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike500.00
Volume219
OI502
IV0.60
ContractMDGL270115C00480000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike480.00
Volume106
OI893
IV0.55
ContractMDGL260821C00500000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike500.00
Volume36
OI23
IV0.43
ContractMDGL260821P00460000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike460.00
Volume34
OI8
IV0.45
ContractMDGL260918P00480000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike480.00
Volume33
OI1
IV0.45
ContractMDGL261218C00370000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike370.00
Volume31
OI36
IV0.61