MDGL NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc · Healthcare · Biotechnology

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Latest close 467.3 USD
-14.2% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is -6.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 53.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -14.2%, after a -11.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 40/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 59/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 3d.

Setup score 39 out of 100
Latest Close 467.3 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return -14.2% latest completed week
4W Return -11.5% short-term follow-through
12W Return -8.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 53.8% 28 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 1.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 3-week active streak.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
What could go wrong
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
  • The latest week was a sharp negative move.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through -14.2% Latest completed week; four-week move -11.5%. Indicator stack 40/54 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 40/100 conviction; expected move 8.1%. News sentiment 59/100 57 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 3d Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is -6.0% below the Trend Line and sits at 53.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -14.2%, after a -11.5% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.5612-week average 0.58

12-week confirmation

Trend active3/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.56Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -11.5% over four weeks, -8.4% over 12 weeks, and 54.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 3 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W-14.2%
4W-11.5%
12W-8.4%
26W-4.5%
52W54.7%
Active trend streak3 weeks
Active weeks in one year28
Trend breadth53.8%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.11Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change23.8%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-12.55Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-357.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 82% Model confidence 78%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength14/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 87; rank 1 is best.
Value13/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 88; rank 1 is best.
Quality7/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 94; rank 1 is best.
Momentum92/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 9; rank 1 is best.
Growth90/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 11; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
-
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
11.1x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
-
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
-2.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
93.1%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
-25.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
-23.2%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
-32.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
256.8%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
3/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.4x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

MDGL shows mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.86, expected move of 8.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction40/100
Expected move8.1%
Put/call volume0.86
Pressure13
Speculation42
Volatility62
Trend agreement72
Open options detail
Insider activity9 / 11

9 acquisitions and 11 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 57 relevant articles.

26 positive · 29 neutral · 2 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings3dNext report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move8.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-24.0%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+15.8%Week of 27 Mar.
Worst week-14.2%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week-14.2%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains3
Modest gains9
Flat weeks0
Modest losses11
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew5.3% / -3.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape41/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 41/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis43/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 3/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 2/12.

Activity pressure 0.56; 2 reversal markers Factors28/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 58; Small Cap Core rank 87 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options53/100

MDGL shows mixed options pressure with a 40/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.86, expected move of 8.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 8.1% Sentiment59/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 57 relevant articles.

BlackRock (MDGL holder) discloses 4.6% Madrigal Pharmaceuticals stake in Schedule 13G/A Insiders9 / 11

9 acquisitions and 11 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings3d

Next report is scheduled for 04 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026467.3 USD-14.2%497.1 USD334.1 USD0.11-12.553.1MOn
24 Jul 2026544.5 USD-1.6%501.3 USD332.3 USD0.242.791.1MOn
17 Jul 2026553.5 USD3.1%503.1 USD330.1 USD0.293.511.6MOn
10 Jul 2026536.7 USD1.6%504.4 USD328.0 USD0.13-3.331.7MOff
3 Jul 2026528.1 USD3.0%505.6 USD326.0 USD0.09-2.741.4MOff
26 Jun 2026512.6 USD1.4%507.2 USD324.0 USD0.11-4.293.8MOff
19 Jun 2026505.8 USD5.2%510.0 USD322.2 USD-0.03-9.421.4MOff
12 Jun 2026480.8 USD-1.3%511.4 USD320.5 USD0.02-11.281.3MOff
5 Jun 2026487.0 USD-2.1%513.0 USD319.0 USD0.14-7.821.3MOff
29 May 2026497.3 USD-3.9%513.1 USD317.5 USD0.24-9.731.1MOff
22 May 2026517.3 USD-1.2%510.5 USD316.0 USD0.25-3.031.3MOff
15 May 2026523.7 USD2.7%507.3 USD314.5 USD0.21-0.131.5MOff
8 May 2026510.0 USD-0.7%504.5 USD312.9 USD0.17-2.601.8MOff
1 May 2026513.7 USD0.3%501.8 USD311.5 USD0.033.801.0MOff
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.