Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
ARWR options intelligence
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
37
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 13:28 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
ARWR currently carries mixed options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
12.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.20
Balanced tape
Trend fit
88
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-1.1%
RS 36.1
Expected move
12.5%
Put-call volume
1.20
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.65
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
84.65
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
456
Research Brief
ARWR has a mixed chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 74.10–95.20; The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 90.00.
Priced range74.10–95.20
Call concentration85.00
Put concentration85.00
Max pain reference85.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 74.10 to 95.20. Max pain at 85.00 sits inside that range, 0.4% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
74.1084.65 ± 10.5595.20
Confirmation level
A close beyond 95.20 or below 74.10 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 37/100
Pressure is 5/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure5 × 42%
+2.1
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation14 × 22%
+3.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement88 × 26%
+23.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility86 × 10%
+8.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 85.00. The most active strike by current volume is 90.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
74
50.00-40.9%
12
544
60.00-29.1%
10
296
65.00-23.2%
0
1425
70.00-17.3%
269
451
72.50-14.4%
32
1777
75.00-11.4%
524
51
77.50-8.4%
49
1222
80.00-5.5%
586
38
82.50-2.5%
74
2169
85.000.4%
1015
77
87.503.4%
318
199
90.006.3%
363
10
92.509.3%
263
20
95.0012.2%
503
2
100.0018.1%
379
0
105.0024.0%
611
0
120.0041.8%
767
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.3MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak90.00+$449,308
Negative peak70.00-$192,329
Nearest balance86.60Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
55.00-35.0%
-$3,976
57.50-32.1%
-$2,863
60.00-29.1%
-$23,959
62.50-26.2%
-$2,200
65.00-23.2%
+$488
67.50-20.3%
-$1,039
70.00-17.3%
-$192,329
72.50-14.4%
-$46,029
75.00-11.4%
+$61,260
77.50-8.4%
-$5,086
80.00-5.5%
+$141,551
82.50-2.5%
-$526
85.000.4%
-$142,537
87.503.4%
+$80,755
90.006.3%
+$449,308
92.509.3%
+$69,896
95.0012.2%
+$139,965
100.0018.1%
+$411,704
105.0024.0%
+$122,150
110.0029.9%
+$77,861
115.0035.9%
+$22,603
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.65
21 Aug
21d
0.64
18 Sep
49d
0.62
18 Dec
140d
0.60
15 Jan
168d
0.61
19 Mar
231d
0.59
21 Jan
539d
0.59
15 Dec
868d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
70
73
75
78
80
83
85
88
90
93
95
100
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 456 / 456
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $503,864 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-5
1W price-1.1%
Call premium46%
Put premium54%
Notional split
C 46% / P 54%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
88/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 217 contracts traded, $181,785 estimated gross traded notional, and 36% of visible notional.
$181,785
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 140 contracts traded, $151,900 estimated gross traded notional, and 30% of visible notional.
$151,900
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 97 contracts traded, $77,115 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$77,115
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 12 contracts traded, $18,720 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$18,720
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $16,930 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$16,930
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close84.65
1W-1.1%
RS36.1
Fair value+144.1%
Options pressure-5
Speculation14
Volatility86
Trend fit88
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:26
Volatility
Pressure 36
Move 12.2%
30 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.6%
31 Jul 13:17
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 12.7%
31 Jul 14:30
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 12.2%
31 Jul 15:36
Mixed
Pressure -7
Move 11.7%
31 Jul 16:46
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 11.3%
31 Jul 17:54
Mixed
Pressure -4
Move 11.7%
2 Aug 12:28
Mixed
Pressure -5
Move 12.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 12
Puts · V 0 · OI 74
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 544
Strike62.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 296
Strike67.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 49
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.65
Put-call2.39
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.64
Put-call7.43
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.62
Put-call1.64
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts80
Avg IV0.60
Put-call0.23
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts56
Avg IV0.61
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.64
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.62
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.62
Skew0.06
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.59
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.59
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractARWR270115C00100000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike100.00
Volume176
OI1569
IV0.59
ContractARWR260918P00090000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume140
OI141
IV0.64
ContractARWR260821P00090000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume97
OI199
IV0.59
ContractARWR270115P00027000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike27.00
Volume50
OI50
IV0.59
ContractARWR260821C00100000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume32
OI379
IV0.27
ContractARWR260821P00070000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume30
OI1425
IV0.70
ContractARWR260821P00075000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume20
OI1777
IV0.21
ContractARWR260821C00095000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike95.00
Volume18
OI503
IV0.67
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.