Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
MCY options intelligence
Mercury General Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 11:16 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
MCY currently carries bullish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
8.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.04
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.1%
RS 9.2
Expected move
8.7%
Put-call volume
0.04
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.47
Max pain
85.00
Underlying
107.12
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
176
Research Brief
MCY has a bullish chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 97.77–116.47; The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 95.00. The most active strike by current volume is 115.00.
Priced range97.77–116.47
Call concentration85.00
Put concentration95.00
Max pain reference85.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 97.77 to 116.47. Max pain at 85.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
97.77107.12 ± 9.35116.47
Confirmation level
A close beyond 116.47 or below 97.77 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation1 × 22%
+0.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 85.00; the largest put concentration is 95.00. The most active strike by current volume is 115.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
55.00-48.7%
0
3
60.00-44.0%
2
2
65.00-39.3%
4
2
70.00-34.7%
0
14
75.00-30.0%
0
6
80.00-25.3%
0
6
85.00-20.6%
326
14
90.00-16.0%
24
166
95.00-11.3%
17
20
100.00-6.6%
76
12
105.00-2.0%
10
13
110.002.7%
19
1
115.007.4%
16
0
120.0012.0%
13
0
130.0021.4%
2
0
135.0026.0%
2
0
140.0030.7%
1
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$582,778Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak120.00+$189,294
Negative peak90.00-$20,070
Nearest balance90.55Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
45.00-58.0%
+$5
50.00-53.3%
+$21
55.00-48.7%
-$16
60.00-44.0%
-$60
65.00-39.3%
+$396
70.00-34.7%
+$7,698
75.00-30.0%
+$47,151
80.00-25.3%
+$50,832
85.00-20.6%
+$41,359
90.00-16.0%
-$20,070
95.00-11.3%
+$163,533
100.00-6.6%
+$11,337
105.00-2.0%
+$12,583
110.002.7%
+$3,911
115.007.4%
+$5,921
120.0012.0%
+$189,294
125.0016.7%
+$67,934
130.0021.4%
+$637
135.0026.0%
+$289
140.0030.7%
+$12
145.0035.4%
+$11
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.47
21 Aug
18d
0.38
18 Sep
46d
0.37
18 Dec
137d
0.36
19 Mar
228d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 176 / 176
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $70,858 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · itm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-0.1%
Call premium99%
Put premium1%
Notional split
C 99% / P 1%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 48 contracts traded, $69,120 estimated gross traded notional, and 98% of visible notional.
$69,120
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $970 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$970
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM
puts cluster with 2 contracts traded, $448 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$448
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $320 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$320
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close107.12
1W-0.1%
RS9.2
Fair value+67.1%
Options pressure100
Speculation1
Volatility68
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:38
Bullish
Pressure 94
Move 9.3%
30 Jul 10:34
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 9.3%
31 Jul 10:23
Bearish
Pressure -81
Move 9.0%
31 Jul 13:46
Bullish
Pressure 89
Move 8.3%
31 Jul 15:40
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 16:41
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 8.5%
31 Jul 17:00
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 8.5%
31 Jul 18:01
Volatility
Pressure 89
Move 8.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.47
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts44
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts46
Avg IV0.36
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.47
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.40
Skew0.07
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.37
Put IV0.40
Skew0.03
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.39
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMCY260918C00095000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume48
OI939
IV0.42
ContractMCY260821C00115000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike115.00
Volume2
OI16
IV0.44
ContractMCY260918P00095000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike95.00
Volume1
OI51
IV0.42
ContractMCY260918P00100000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike100.00
Volume1
OI32
IV0.40
ContractMCY270319C00115000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike115.00
Volume1
OI-
IV0.35
ContractMCY260918C00120000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike120.00
Volume-
OI710
IV0.32
ContractMCY260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume-
OI696
IV0.60
ContractMCY261218C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike75.00
Volume-
OI500
IV0.44
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.