Ticker Options Intelligence

MBWM options intelligence

Mercantile Bank Corporation options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 46 Market data through 29 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 05:26 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

MBWM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.00

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.2%

RS 8.8

Expected move 6.2%
Put-call volume -
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.25
Max pain 30.00
Underlying 58.50
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 88

Research Brief

MBWM has a bullish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 54.89–62.11; The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00.

Priced range54.89–62.11
Call concentration30.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference30.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 54.89 to 62.11. Max pain at 30.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
54.8958.50 ± 3.6162.11
Confirmation level

A close beyond 62.11 or below 54.89 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 46/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.2

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility42 × 10%
+4.2

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 30.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 30.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
30.00-48.7%
0
0
35.00-40.2%
0
0
40.00-31.6%
0
0
45.00-23.1%
0
0
50.00-14.5%
0
0
55.00-6.0%
0
0
60.002.6%
0
0
65.0011.1%
0
0
70.0019.7%
0
0
75.0028.2%
0
0
80.0036.8%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

0.93× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.25 21 Aug 22d
0.30 18 Sep 50d
0.25 18 Dec 141d
0.27 19 Mar 232d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

50
55
60
65
70
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
29 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
88 / 88
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Directional flow, confirmation needed

34/100
Primary intent Directional flow, confirmation needed

There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Directional flow, confirmation needed matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $675 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+100
1W price+1.2%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split C 100% / P 0% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $675 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$675

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 1 completed session

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close58.50
1W+1.2%
RS8.8
Fair value+38.4%
Options pressure100
Speculation1
Volatility42
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.2% history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
IV 0.25 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.00 history building
30d avg - · 0/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 0/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 0/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:15 Mixed
Pressure 11
Move 8.5%
30 Jul 04:26 Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 6.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.30
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts22
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts24
Avg IV0.27
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.17
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.56
Skew0.48
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.35
Skew0.09
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.21
Put IV0.29
Skew0.08

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractMBWM260918C00055000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike55.00
Volume1
OI12
IV0.36
ContractMBWM260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.39
ContractMBWM261218C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI20
IV0.24
ContractMBWM261218C00040000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI5
IV0.26
ContractMBWM260918P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI4
IV0.21
ContractMBWM261218C00035000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.42
ContractMBWM260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.24
ContractMBWM261218C00055000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike55.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.23