Ticker Options Intelligence

YMM options intelligence

Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 28 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 14:35 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

YMM currently carries mixed options pressure with a 28/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 12.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.93

Balanced tape

Trend fit 56

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +3.0%

RS -15.1

Expected move 12.5%
Put-call volume 0.93
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.07
Max pain 10.00
Underlying 9.21
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 32

Research Brief

YMM has a mixed chain read with 28/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 8.06–10.36; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50.

Priced range8.06–10.36
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration7.50
Max pain reference10.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 8.06 to 10.36. Max pain at 10.00 sits inside that range, 8.6% above spot.

Spot Max pain
8.069.21 ± 1.1510.36
Confirmation level

A close beyond 10.36 or below 8.06 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 28/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 5/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure5 × 42%
+2.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation32 × 22%
+7.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement56 × 26%
+14.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility45 × 10%
+4.5

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score28.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 7.50. The most active strike by current volume is 2.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-72.9%
0
106
7.50-18.6%
3
11
10.008.6%
102
0
12.5035.7%
6
1
15.0062.9%
0
0
17.5090.0%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.48× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.07 21 Aug 21d
0.08 18 Sep 49d
0.12 18 Dec 140d
0.15 19 Mar 231d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

8
10
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A96/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
32 / 32
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

66/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $31946 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+5
1W price+3.0%
Call premium58%
Put premium42%
Notional split C 58% / P 42% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 56/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 20 Aug Matched earnings event is 18 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 92 contracts traded, $9420 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$9420
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 31 contracts traded, $8105 estimated gross traded notional, and 25% of visible notional.
$8105
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 53 contracts traded, $4593 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$4593
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $3189 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$3189
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 6 contracts traded, $2801 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2801

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close9.49
1W+3.0%
RS-15.1
Fair value+2.9%
Options pressure5
Speculation32
Volatility45
Trend fit56

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.07 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.93 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:29 Bullish
Pressure 69
Move 12.2%
30 Jul 10:24 Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 10.0%
31 Jul 05:21 Volatility
Pressure -70
Move 11.1%
31 Jul 13:35 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 12.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 1 · OI 106
Strike10.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 102
Puts · V 1 · OI 11
Strike12.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 6
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 4 · OI 1
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.07
Put-call0.88
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts11
Avg IV0.08
Put-call2.74
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts9
Avg IV0.12
Put-call0.21
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts3
Avg IV0.15
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.06
Put IV0.25
Skew0.19
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.13
Skew0.09
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.03
Put IV0.13
Skew0.09
19 Mar 2027Incomplete skew
Call IV0.06
Put IV-
Skew-

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractYMM270319C00012500
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI5
IV0.06
ContractYMM261218C00015000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI1
IV0.69
ContractYMM260821P00017500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractYMM260918P00012500
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI-
IV0.00
ContractYMM260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume90
OI9401
IV0.00
ContractYMM261218C00010000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike10.00
Volume50
OI1133
IV0.03
ContractYMM261218C00007500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike7.50
Volume25
OI173
IV0.00
ContractYMM261218P00007500
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike7.50
Volume15
OI1513
IV0.13