Ticker Options Intelligence

UPST options intelligence

Upstart Holdings Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 39 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 2 Aug 2026 19:38 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

UPST currently carries bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 15.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 15.5%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.60

Call-side skew

Trend fit 30

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +1.9%

RS -39.9

Expected move 15.5%
Put-call volume 0.60
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 1.53
Max pain 29.00
Underlying 27.44
Nearest expiry 7 Aug 2026
Contracts 669

Research Brief

UPST has a bullish chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 23.18–31.70; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.

Priced range23.18–31.70
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration20.00
Max pain reference29.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 7 Aug

Options imply 23.18 to 31.70. Max pain at 29.00 sits inside that range, 5.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
23.1827.44 ± 4.2631.70
Confirmation level

A close beyond 31.70 or below 23.18 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 39/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 29/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure29 × 42%
+12.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement31 × 26%
+7.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
803
20.00-27.1%
11
463
21.50-21.6%
0
567
22.50-18.0%
0
246
25.00-8.9%
21
81
26.50-3.4%
326
627
27.00-1.6%
108
36
27.500.2%
534
186
28.002.0%
188
198
28.503.9%
45
47
29.005.7%
124
211
30.009.3%
853
49
31.0013.0%
251
338
32.0016.6%
662
244
33.0020.3%
446
340
35.0027.6%
1096
7
37.0034.8%
788
4
38.0038.5%
700
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.88× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.53 7 Aug 7d
1.15 14 Aug 14d
1.01 21 Aug 21d
0.96 28 Aug 28d
0.89 4 Sep 35d
0.86 11 Sep 42d
0.86 18 Sep 49d
0.83 16 Oct 77d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

22
23
23
24
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
30
31
31
32
32
33
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
669 / 669
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

88/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.2M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+29
1W price+1.9%
Call premium35%
Put premium65%
Notional split C 35% / P 65% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 30/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 602 contracts traded, $1.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 41% of visible notional.
$1.7M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 1210 contracts traded, $385582 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$385582
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 292 contracts traded, $310447 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$310447
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM puts cluster with 101 contracts traded, $290010 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$290010
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 2747 contracts traded, $222658 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$222658

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close27.44
1W+1.9%
RS-39.9
Fair value-34.9%
Options pressure29
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit31

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 15.5% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.53 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.60 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:53 Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 7.2%
30 Jul 10:43 Bullish
Pressure 45
Move 4.9%
31 Jul 10:30 Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 3.1%
2 Aug 04:51 Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 15.5%
2 Aug 18:38 Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 15.5%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 233 · OI 0
Strike18.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 9 · OI 22
Strike19.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 5
Strike20.00
Calls · V 31 · OI 11
Puts · V 193 · OI 803
Strike20.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 42
Strike21.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 122 · OI 20
Strike21.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 109 · OI 463

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts87
Avg IV1.53
Put-call0.45
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts67
Avg IV1.15
Put-call0.53
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts72
Avg IV1.01
Put-call1.07
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts47
Avg IV0.96
Put-call0.80
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.89
Put-call0.32

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.55
Put IV1.56
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.19
Put IV1.06
Skew-0.12
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.04
Put IV0.97
Skew-0.07
28 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.00
Put IV0.94
Skew-0.06
4 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.94
Put IV0.81
Skew-0.13

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractUPST260821C00026500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike26.50
Volume-
OI78
IV1.03
ContractUPST260828C00023000
SideCall
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Strike23.00
Volume-
OI55
IV0.92
ContractUPST260807P00020500
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike20.50
Volume-
OI42
IV1.50
ContractUPST260904C00040000
SideCall
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike40.00
Volume-
OI36
IV1.08
ContractUPST260904P00031000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike31.00
Volume-
OI31
IV0.85
ContractUPST260821C00019000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume-
OI30
IV1.73
ContractUPST260821P00029500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike29.50
Volume-
OI20
IV1.00
ContractUPST260807C00024500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike24.50
Volume-
OI10
IV1.62