Ticker Options Intelligence

OTLK options intelligence

OUTLOOK THERAPEUTICS INC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 48 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 06:04 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

OTLK currently carries volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 49.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 49.8%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.37

Call-side skew

Trend fit 59

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -30.5%

RS -12.8

Expected move 49.8%
Put-call volume 0.37
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 2.03
Max pain 1.00
Underlying 1.41
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 74

Research Brief

OTLK has a volatility chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 0.70–2.11; The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.00; the largest put concentration is 1.50. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00.

Priced range0.70–2.11
Call concentration2.00
Put concentration1.50
Max pain reference1.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 0.70 to 2.11. Max pain at 1.00 sits inside that range, 28.8% below spot.

Spot Max pain
0.701.41 ± 0.702.11
Confirmation level

A close beyond 2.11 or below 0.70 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 48/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 55/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure55 × 42%
+23.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement59 × 26%
+15.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score48.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 2.00; the largest put concentration is 1.50. The most active strike by current volume is 1.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
4332
0.50-64.4%
1799
3055
1.00-28.8%
10680
4781
1.506.8%
7527
163
2.0042.3%
12683
71
2.5077.9%
7292
3
5.00255.9%
2451
0
7.50433.8%
1041
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.37× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

2.03 21 Aug 21d
1.52 18 Sep 49d
1.47 20 Nov 112d
1.61 15 Jan 168d
1.48 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

2
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
74 / 74
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

93/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $19320 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+55
1W price-30.5%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split C 62% / P 38% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 59/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 12 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 90 contracts traded, $5625 estimated gross traded notional, and 29% of visible notional.
$5625
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 232 contracts traded, $4060 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$4060
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 85 contracts traded, $3445 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$3445
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 386 contracts traded, $2042 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$2042
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 78 contracts traded, $1982 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$1982

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close0.98
1W-30.5%
RS-12.8
Fair value-77.5%
Options pressure55
Speculation1
Volatility96
Trend fit59

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 49.8% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 2.03 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.37 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:45 Volatility
Pressure 84
Move 49.8%
30 Jul 11:23 Volatility
Pressure 64
Move 51.6%
31 Jul 10:55 Volatility
Pressure 63
Move 48.0%
1 Aug 05:04 Volatility
Pressure 55
Move 49.8%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike0.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1799
Puts · V 170 · OI 4332
Strike1.00
Calls · V 232 · OI 10680
Puts · V 43 · OI 3055
Strike1.50
Calls · V 148 · OI 7527
Puts · V 90 · OI 4781
Strike2.00
Calls · V 153 · OI 12683
Puts · V 0 · OI 163
Strike2.50
Calls · V 65 · OI 7292
Puts · V 0 · OI 71
Strike5.00
Calls · V 20 · OI 2451
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1041
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV2.03
Put-call0.49
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.52
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts14
Avg IV1.47
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV1.61
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts14
Avg IV1.48
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV2.28
Put IV2.02
Skew-0.25
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV2.01
Put IV1.25
Skew-0.75
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.64
Put IV1.28
Skew-0.36
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.42
Put IV1.35
Skew-0.07
19 Feb 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.68
Put IV1.43
Skew0.75

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractOTLK260821C00001000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.00
Volume232
OI10680
IV1.93
ContractOTLK260821P00000500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike0.50
Volume170
OI4332
IV1.92
ContractOTLK260821C00002000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.00
Volume153
OI12683
IV1.73
ContractOTLK260821C00001500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.50
Volume148
OI7527
IV2.28
ContractOTLK260821P00001500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.50
Volume90
OI4781
IV2.51
ContractOTLK260821C00002500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume65
OI7292
IV2.12
ContractOTLK260821P00001000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike1.00
Volume43
OI3055
IV2.02
ContractOTLK270219C00002000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike2.00
Volume39
OI325
IV1.74