Ticker Options Intelligence

PAX options intelligence

Patria Investments Ltd options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 29 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 06:46 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

PAX currently carries mixed options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 16.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.75

Balanced tape

Trend fit 50

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -1.9%

RS -25.6

Expected move 16.4%
Put-call volume 0.75
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.70
Max pain 12.50
Underlying 10.80
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 72

Research Brief

PAX has a mixed chain read with 29/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.02–12.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50.

Priced range9.02–12.58
Call concentration12.50
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference12.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 9.02 to 12.58. Max pain at 12.50 sits inside that range, 15.7% above spot.

Spot Max pain
9.0210.80 ± 1.7812.58
Confirmation level

A close beyond 12.58 or below 9.02 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 29/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 16/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure16 × 42%
+6.7

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation1 × 22%
+0.1

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement50 × 26%
+13.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility89 × 10%
+8.9

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score28.7Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 12.50; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 12.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
2.50-76.9%
5
0
5.00-53.7%
0
0
7.50-30.6%
0
264
10.00-7.4%
0
10
12.5015.7%
133
0
15.0038.9%
0
0
17.5062.0%
1
0
20.0085.2%
0
0
22.50108.3%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.91× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.70 21 Aug 22d
0.40 18 Sep 50d
0.57 16 Oct 78d
0.37 15 Jan 169d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

10
13
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
72 / 72
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $352 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+16
1W price-1.9%
Call premium27%
Put premium73%
Notional split C 27% / P 73% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 50/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 6 Aug Matched earnings event is 6 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · OTM
Puts · 46-90 days · OTM puts cluster with 5 contracts traded, $238 estimated gross traded notional, and 67% of visible notional.
$238
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $50 estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$50
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 2 contracts traded, $25 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$25
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $20 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$20
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $20 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$20

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close10.80
1W-1.9%
RS-25.6
Fair value-11.8%
Options pressure16
Speculation1
Volatility89
Trend fit50

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 16.4% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.70 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.75 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:03 Volatility
Pressure -39
Move 17.8%
30 Jul 04:26 Volatility
Pressure -60
Move 10.4%
31 Jul 03:10 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 20.1%
31 Jul 05:46 Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 16.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 264
Strike12.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 133
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.70
Put-call0.20
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.40
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts20
Avg IV0.57
Put-call5.00
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.37
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.55
Skew0.27
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.15
Skew-0.03
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.33
Put IV0.46
Skew0.14
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.35
Skew0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractPAX261016P00010000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike10.00
Volume5
OI222
IV0.46
ContractPAX260821C00012500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume5
OI133
IV0.28
ContractPAX270115C00015000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume2
OI145
IV0.33
ContractPAX260821P00010000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume1
OI264
IV0.55
ContractPAX261016C00012500
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume1
OI254
IV0.33
ContractPAX261016C00015000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI140
IV0.31
ContractPAX270115P00010000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike10.00
Volume-
OI95
IV0.35
ContractPAX261016P00012500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI72
IV0.81